金大川 3.6 下午 黄金分析

tonight 9:30 non-farm data will be released, combined with the impact of the US-Iran situation, gold bulls and bears enter a critical window. Although the war has not stopped, the risk aversion sentiment has cooled in the short term. After gold came under pressure and fell back, it maintained a narrow range of oscillation; after the Strait of Hormuz blockade, gold did not rise but fell instead, mainly due to market concerns that rising oil prices would boost inflation and drag down the economy, thereby reducing the Fed's rate cut expectations, leading to a correction in gold. This non-farm data is particularly critical; good data will further suppress rate cut expectations and be bearish for gold, while weak data will boost rate cut expectations and promote gold to rise.

Gold rebounded to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of yesterday's decline, coinciding with 5144, forming a strong resistance; after a sharp decline, the double top resistance is near 5200. Only by stabilizing above this level can the bulls initiate a new round of upward movement. Below, focus on the support levels at 5080 and 5060.

This afternoon's outlook remains bullish, mainly focusing on retracement and buying on dips, avoiding blindly chasing highs.

In terms of operations, consider buying on dips at support levels 5070-5080, with a stop below 5060. The initial target is 5130, then 5150.

Risk reminder: Investment involves risks. Enter the market cautiously. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
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