The current price spread has fallen from the previous high of 82,828 by 5,000 points to the low of 77,850. You can watch the 78,000 level as well—this is also a key point where the prior spike topped out and then stabilized. Meanwhile, as the price spread continues to fluctuate above 82,000 on multiple subsequent attempts, the highs have been consistently shifting lower, which also suggests that the probability of a turning point is gradually rising. Now, on the “big cake” 1-hour timeframe, after the early-morning price spread saw a brief small rebound and a repair, this afternoon the “kōngtóu” is again affected by news, and momentum has continued to grow. It is currently at the key support level of 78,000. A break below this level also means that more downside room will open up. Once market sentiment again triggers panic selling, there will be a large pullback—so the next thing to watch is 70,000. “Yi-tai” had also said before that the overall momentum of the “kōngtóu” is stronger than the “duōtóu.” The 2,200 support will be difficult to hold; in the afternoon, it also quickly broke below support along with the “big cake,” and 2,000 seems not far off. There’s no need to act immediately in the future. Just watch whether this key level confirms support, or whether it’s a valid breakdown that opens up further downward space. #CLARITY法案参议院通关

Insiders say the Pentagon is preparing for the possibility that the U.S. and Israel may resume military strikes against Iran as early as next week. Options include heavier bombing or special forces moving into the ground. Negotiations have now hit a deadlock. This completely reverses the earlier signals of a “breakthrough in talks.” If it comes to pass, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut down entirely, international oil prices will surge, inflation will skyrocket, the Federal Reserve will be unlikely to cut rates, and Bitcoin will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, although this report has not been confirmed yet, the market will likely price in the risk early. It is recommended to dramatically reduce position sizes and wait for the situation to become clear. Once fighting starts, a pullback to the 70,000 level for Bitcoin is also not out of the question. #美国4月PPI同比暴涨6%

5.16 Early Morning Bitcoin Market Analysis On Friday morning, it was reasonable to expect a pullback around 80,500. In the afternoon, support at 80,000 held steady, suggesting a light bullish stance. In the evening, we thought there might be a strong rebound, but as the US stock market was about to open, no significant rebound was seen, so the short position had to be closed early. After the market opened, the price quickly dropped again, eventually hitting a new low of 78,610. Fortunately, there was no hesitation, and the short position was closed in time. Although subsequent profits from short positions were limited, the outcome was positive. This time’s pullback did not effectively break below the middle support of the daily line. Meanwhile, the volume of short positions quickly decreased, indicating that this wave was a concentrated release of short volume, which is unlikely to be sustained. Currently, the one-hour timeframe shows that the momentum of short positions continues to weaken. If this pullback cannot effectively break below 78,000 in the short term and open downwards space, a double bottom may form around 78,500, providing strong support for a subsequent bullish rebound. The final support at 2203 stopped the decline, and the strength of the recent short positions has been greater than that of the bullish positions. The bearish trend remains, and the 2200 support level is difficult to hold. Going forward, focus on the pullback in the 78,800-79,000 range. The key resistance level above is 80,000. Below, support naturally is at 2200, while above, a breakout of the 2250-2265 range is needed. #CLARITY法案参议院通关