The Latest Crypto Bull Run in 2024: Bitcoin's Historic Rally Powered by ETF Inflows and Halving Anticipation

Bitcoin is experiencing what might be its most institutionally-backed rally yet. As we enter 2024-25, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has shattered expectations, climbing from $40,000 at the start of 2024 to $92,900 by early January 2026—a stunning 132% surge that reflects a fundamental shift in how traditional finance embraces digital assets.

What’s Driving This Crypto Bull Run?

Unlike previous rallies fueled by retail hype or media speculation, today’s crypto bull run rests on three concrete pillars: regulatory approval, institutional capital, and supply mechanics.

The ETF Game Changer

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. SEC in January 2024 opened the floodgates for institutional money. These financial products eliminated custody headaches and regulatory uncertainty that previously deterred conservative investors. Within the first year, these ETFs accumulated over $4.5 billion in cumulative inflows by November 2024, with major asset managers like BlackRock alone holding approximately 467,000 BTC through its IBIT fund. Total Bitcoin holdings across all U.S. ETFs now exceed 1 million BTC—a staggering concentration that demonstrates institutional conviction in Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class.

Supply Shock From Halving

Bitcoin’s fourth halving event occurred in April 2024, reducing the daily new supply by 50%. Historically, this mechanism proves reliable: the 2012 halving preceded a 5,200% rally, the 2016 event kicked off a 315% run, and the 2020 halving launched Bitcoin toward its previous all-time high. Fewer coins entering circulation while demand remained robust created the classic supply-demand imbalance that drives prices higher.

Government Bitcoin Adoption Signals

The political landscape shifted notably. Discussions around treating Bitcoin as a strategic national reserve—exemplified by proposed legislation like the BITCOIN Act of 2024—signaled potential large-scale government purchases. Countries including Bhutan and El Salvador have already accumulated thousands of BTC as part of their national strategies, setting precedent for major economies to follow.

The Mechanics Behind Recognition

Understanding this crypto bull run requires examining how Bitcoin identifies itself during rallies. Several technical and on-chain signals converge:

Technical Indicators Flashing Green

During this rally, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index surged above 70—a level typically reserved for strong momentum conditions. Price movements decisively broke through both 50-day and 200-day moving averages, classical signals confirming uptrend initiation. By November 2024, Bitcoin reached $93,000—its new all-time high at that time.

On-Chain Data Confirms Accumulation

Exchange reserves of Bitcoin continued declining as investors withdrew coins to personal wallets—a bullish signal indicating long-term commitment rather than trading interest. Simultaneously, stablecoin inflows to exchanges surged, providing liquidity for fresh buyers. MicroStrategy and similar publicly-traded companies aggressively accumulated Bitcoin throughout 2024, removing supply from open markets and signaling confidence from sophisticated corporate treasuries.

Historical Context: How We Got Here

Bitcoin’s journey to this point includes several distinct cycles, each with unique characteristics:

2013: The First Taste of Mainstream

Bitcoin’s initial speculative mania saw prices explode from $145 to $1,200—a 730% gain—before collapsing nearly 75% in the subsequent bear market. The Mt. Gox exchange collapse (which handled 70% of Bitcoin volume at the time) demonstrated infrastructure risks but also proved Bitcoin’s resilience through major setbacks.

2017: Retail Mania and ICO Excess

The second major rally propelled Bitcoin from $1,000 to $20,000 as retail investors flooded exchanges and thousands of new tokens launched via Initial Coin Offerings. Daily trading volume exploded from under $200 million to over $15 billion. However, regulatory concerns and market saturation triggered an 84% correction by late 2018.

2020-2021: The Institutional Watershed

This cycle fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s narrative. Institutional players including MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square committed billions to Bitcoin holdings. The “digital gold” story resonated during pandemic-era monetary expansion and negative real interest rates. Bitcoin rallied from $8,000 to $64,000 (700% gain) before consolidating. This period proved Bitcoin could appeal beyond crypto enthusiasts—it could serve serious institutional mandates.

2024-2025: The Regulatory Vindication

Today’s rally synthesizes lessons from previous cycles while adding new infrastructure. Institutional access through familiar ETF wrappers, government discussions about reserve status, and proven technological durability create a different risk profile. Bitcoin is no longer an exotic speculation—it’s becoming a boring, fundamental portfolio allocation for risk management.

Anticipating Future Moves

Bitcoin’s next phases will likely involve:

Technological Upgrades

Proposed code additions like OP_CAT could unlock Bitcoin Layer-2 scaling solutions, enabling thousands of transactions per second and positioning Bitcoin for DeFi applications currently dominated by Ethereum. Enhanced transaction throughput would improve Bitcoin’s utility beyond store-of-value functions.

Additional Government Reserves

If major nations adopt Bitcoin as strategic reserves, demand could exceed current supply growth indefinitely, creating multi-year tailwinds regardless of short-term sentiment shifts.

Continued Halving Cycles

Bitcoin’s remaining halvings (occurring every four years) will continue constraining supply. As block rewards diminish toward zero, transaction fees become increasingly important, potentially creating new equilibrium dynamics.

What Investors Should Monitor

For anyone tracking this crypto bull run:

• ETF inflow patterns: Sustained institutional buying signals confidence; sudden reversals suggest sentiment shifts
• On-chain wallet movements: Large accumulations by known entities indicate conviction; exchange inflows suggest distribution
• Regulatory announcements: Policy shifts can instantly reprieve Bitcoin from regulatory overhangs
• Macroeconomic conditions: Interest rate trajectories and inflation dynamics continue influencing Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge
• Halving countdown: Next halving cycles arrive with predictable regularity, creating known catalysts for market reassessment

The Bigger Picture

This crypto bull run represents Bitcoin’s transition from speculative asset to institutionalized holdings. The combination of regulatory clarity, technological maturity, supply constraints, and government interest creates fundamentally different conditions than previous rallies. While volatility will persist—Bitcoin remains capable of 20% corrections amid bull trends—the structural foundation appears more durable than ever.

For long-term investors positioning portfolios for the next decade, understanding Bitcoin’s cyclical nature and current catalysts provides essential context. The next bull run won’t necessarily wait for permission; it emerges when these mechanical forces (supply reduction, demand creation, sentiment validation) align. That alignment appears remarkably robust entering 2026.

The cryptocurrency market remains young, unpredictable, and prone to dramatic repricing. But Bitcoin’s evolution from niche technology to institutional staple suggests this cycle differs meaningfully from previous ones. Whether you view it as digital gold or technological experiment, the mechanics driving this crypto bull run merit serious consideration.