Apakah Anda bingung membedakan antara pengisian dividen saham dan pengurangan bunga? Satu artikel untuk memahami 3 pertanyaan terpenting yang paling diperhatikan oleh investor

First, the conclusion: What exactly is filling the dividend?

Many investors buy stocks to receive dividends, but they often overlook an important phenomenon—after a stock pays dividends, its price will automatically adjust downward. For example, a stock’s closing price before dividend distribution is 100 yuan, with a dividend of 3 yuan per share. After ex-dividend, the stock price will automatically adjust to 97 yuan. This is not a problem with the stock itself, but rather an automatic market adjustment mechanism.

The essence of filling the dividend is simple: it is the process where the stock price rises back from the low point after ex-dividend to the original level before ex-dividend. Only when the stock price fully fills the dividend to 100% can investors be considered to have truly received the full dividend. If the stock price remains below 100%, or even below the ex-dividend price (贴息), it actually means receiving dividends at a loss.

What does the speed of filling the dividend tell us? Taiwan stock data gives you the answer

The speed at which different stocks fill their dividends varies greatly. According to Taiwan stock market statistics over the past five years:

On average, stocks can complete filling the dividend within 30 days after ex-dividend. But to judge whether a stock fills its dividend quickly, the key indicator is: If a stock has filled its dividend in 10 days or less more than 4 times in the past five years, it is considered to have a relatively fast filling speed.

A comparison with U.S. stocks makes this even clearer. Apple (AAPL), during the tech bull market, usually completed the fill within a few days after each dividend; while Pepsi (PEP) often took double digits of days. The same market, same dividend payout, but the speed varies greatly, reflecting market expectations of different companies’ prospects.

Not filling the dividend equals a loss? Investors often fall into this trap

This is a common misunderstanding among retail investors. If a stock does not fill the dividend, it means the stock price has fallen more than the dividend amount, and the cash dividend received is effectively eaten up by the decline in stock price.

For example: You buy a stock at 100 yuan and receive a 3 yuan cash dividend, but after ex-dividend, the stock price only rises to 96 yuan. The result is an actual loss of 1 yuan. This does not even account for dividend tax. For short-term investors who need to pay taxes on holdings, the loss is even more apparent.

Even more risky is that investors are often misled by the expectation of “fast historical filling.” Because a certain stock has filled dividends quickly in the past, the market generally expects it to do so in the future as well, leading to a surge in buying volume, which pushes the stock price higher after ex-dividend. If you chase and buy at this high point, you risk buying at a peak, facing the danger of buying high.

How to find stocks that will truly fill their dividends?

Step 1: Check historical filling records

U.S. investors can check on Dividend.com or DividendInvestor.com; for Taiwan stocks, platforms like CMoney, 財報狗, etc., provide statistics on “probability of filling within 30 days in the past 5 years.” For example, on Dividend.com, after entering the stock page, click “Payout History,” and in the “Days Taken for Stock Price to Recover” column, you can see past filling days records.

Step 2: Filter by filling speed

Use the website’s filtering function to screen stocks with filling days less than 10 days as a preliminary selection.

Step 3: Further verification

Don’t just look at the filling days; also check the following three aspects:

• Dividend stability: Choose companies with a stable dividend history and good profitability. These companies are more likely to fill their dividends after ex-dividend because they have continuous earnings and dividend-paying capacity.

• Market sentiment: Observe the market’s attitude toward the company. If the market is optimistic about the company’s prospects, the stock price is more likely to rise and fill the dividend after ex-dividend. Conversely, if the market is pessimistic, the risk of贴息 increases.

• Industry position: Companies in growth industries or with industry-leading positions are more likely to be favored by the market and fill their dividends after ex-dividend.

Filling days are important, but should not be the sole basis for stock selection

The speed of filling dividends indeed reflects market confidence in the company. Fast filling indicates market optimism, while slow filling or贴息 suggests market pessimism. But there is a psychological trap: Many investors believe that “fast filling in the past” means “fast filling in the future,” and are thus bound by collective expectations.

When everyone rushes in based on the same expectation, the opportunity to buy at low prices and enjoy the dividend benefits becomes very difficult. After ex-dividend, stock prices often rise rapidly, leading latecomers to buy at high prices.

More importantly, from a long-term perspective, whether a stock fills its dividend or not is just a short-term price fluctuation. True value investors should focus on the company’s earnings potential and growth prospects, rather than being led by stock price swings.

Final reminder: Establish a rational stock selection framework

The phenomenon of filling dividends does exist, and the speed of filling can be a useful reference indicator, but it should never be the sole criterion for stock selection. A rational approach is:

View the filling days as a window into market sentiment and expectations, combined with fundamental analysis of the company, industry trends, and market mood. Only then can you avoid being misled by short-term price fluctuations and make truly scientific and rational investment decisions.

Remember: fast filling does not necessarily mean a good company, and贴息 does not necessarily mean a bad investment—what matters most is what you buy and why you buy it.