Dolar Australia Di bawah Tekanan karena Data Upah Menunjukkan Moderasi Ekonomi

Australian Dollar Edges Lower Amid Mixed Economic Signals

The Australian Dollar retreated against its US counterpart on Wednesday following the release of the third-quarter Wage Price Index, which came in at 0.8% quarter-on-quarter—perfectly aligned with economist forecasts but offering little momentum for currency appreciation. Year-over-year wage growth remained anchored at 3.4%, mirroring both the previous quarter’s reading and market consensus. This stability in wage growth, while reassuring from an inflation perspective, failed to provide the spark needed to support the Australian currency in a risk-off environment.

RBA’s Measured Approach Limits AUD Upside

Reserve Bank of Australia board members signaled a more balanced and cautious monetary policy stance during their November meeting minutes released on Tuesday. Central bank officials indicated they would maintain the cash rate at current levels should incoming data disappoint relative to expectations. The December 2025 ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures traded at 96.41 on November 18, suggesting only an 8% probability that the RBA will reduce rates to 3.35% from the current 3.60% at its next policy decision. This measured approach, while potentially offering downside protection for the Australian currency, appears insufficient to attract fresh buying interest in the current market environment.

US Dollar Maintains Its Grip as Rate Cut Bets Fade

Meanwhile, the Greenback held its ground around 99.60 on the US Dollar Index (DXY) as market expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts cooled significantly. The CME FedWatch Tool now prices in just a 49% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, down sharply from 67% a week prior. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson acknowledged this week that labor market risks have begun to outweigh inflation concerns, advocating for a “slow” approach to any additional monetary easing. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid reinforced this hawkish tilt, characterizing current policy as “modestly restrictive” and noting that monetary authority should “lean against demand growth.”

Labor Market Data Adds to the Complexity

Recent employment figures paint a picture of gradual deceleration. Initial Jobless Claims reached 232,000 in the week ended October 18, while Continuing Claims climbed to 1.957 juta. An Automatic Data Processing report highlighted that employers trimmed 2,500 jobs weekly during the four weeks ending November 1. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett cautioned that some October data may “never materialize” due to government shutdown-related collection gaps, adding uncertainty to the economic outlook.

In contrast, Australia’s labor market remained surprisingly resilient. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3% in October from 4.5% the prior month, beating the 4.4% consensus forecast. Employment Change surged to 42.2K from a revised 12.8K, far exceeding the 20K market expectation. Divergensi antara momentum pasar tenaga kerja AS dan Australia ini menyajikan arus kontra menarik terhadap pergerakan mata uang.

Technical Picture Shows AUD/USD Consolidation

Pasangan AUD/USD diperdagangkan sekitar 0.6490 pada hari Rabu, terperangkap dalam zona konsolidasi persegi panjang dengan nada bearish. Pasangan mata uang ini tetap di bawah Moving Average Eksponensial sembilan hari di 0.6514, menunjukkan tren penurunan tetap menguasai. Support muncul di tepi bawah persegi panjang dekat 0.6470, diikuti oleh level terendah lima bulan di 0.6414 yang ditetapkan pada 21 Agustus. Di atas, level psikologis 0.6500 dan konfluensi EMA sembilan hari menghadirkan resistansi awal. Pelanggaran decisif di atas 0.6514 dapat mendorong pasangan menuju batas atas persegi panjang di sekitar 0.6630.

Cross-Currency Performance and Market Implications

Australian Dollar menunjukkan kelemahan khusus terhadap Yen Jepang selama sesi Rabu, melanjutkan pola underperformance AUD dalam periode risiko-tinggi. Analisis peta panas mata uang yang lebih luas mengungkapkan bahwa AUD melemah 0.18% terhadap USD, 0.19% terhadap Euro, 0.20% terhadap Yen Jepang, dan 0.11% terhadap Dolar Selandia Baru, sementara menguat secara marginal terhadap Dolar Kanada dan Franc Swiss.

Looking Ahead: The RBA’s Balancing Act

Deputi Gubernur RBA Andrew Hauser baru-baru ini mencatat bahwa kebijakan moneter tetap “restriktif, meskipun komite terus berdebat tentang hal ini.” Jika transisi dari restriktif ringan ke netral terjadi, implikasi signifikan akan mengikuti untuk keputusan suku bunga di masa depan. Interaksi antara kehati-hatian RBA dan kesabaran Fed menunjukkan AUD mungkin menghadapi hambatan dalam jangka pendek, meskipun data ketenagakerjaan Australia yang lebih kuat bisa akhirnya membangkitkan kembali minat beli jika tekanan upah mulai meningkat.

Dalam lanskap investasi yang lebih luas, trader yang mengevaluasi eksposur Australia di berbagai kelas aset—dari mata uang tradisional hingga alternatif yang sedang berkembang yang melacak metrik seperti harga ethereum dalam AUD—sedang menavigasi latar belakang yang kompleks di mana kekuatan pasar tenaga kerja bertentangan dengan pembatasan kebijakan moneter dan kelemahan mata uang.