Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase within a relay triangle, awaiting direction. On March 12, news of Iran's attack on a US cruise ship again pushed crude oil close to $100, with war risks escalating for a second time, further strengthening the bear market macro logic. On the technical side, the daily chart closed as a doji (relay model), and the 4-hour MACD continues to shrink with a slight dead cross; direction is undetermined but downward pressure remains. Operationally, short positions around 70,000 should continue to be held awaiting direction confirmation; today's focus is on the 72,250～72,600 bearish butterfly short (first take-profit must be executed quickly); after the triangle breaks downward, take rebounds at 67,400 / 66,250 levels for long bounce trades (strict small stop-loss and quick take-profit); 75,100 left-side shorts are on standby without urgency. For ETH, BlackRock's ETF landing on Nasdaq this Thursday requires high vigilance regarding "positive news landing" risks, with clear historical precedents. The large-level golden pit at 57,700～56,600 dollar-cost averaging strategy for spot remains unchanged.