#比特币站上7.5万美元

1. BTC Consolidates at $75,000—A Signal Toward $80,000?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has recorded a rare 8-day consecutive rally with moderate volume expansion. The price not only firmly stood above $75,000 but briefly touched the $76,000 level. This movement is significant—it has effectively broken through the strong resistance zone of $70,000-$73,000, which had previously suppressed multiple bounces.

Currently, the daily MACD shows a bullish crossover with expanding positive histogram bars, indicating that bullish momentum has not diminished. The RSI indicator sits at 65-70, which, while in a strong zone, has not entered overbought territory (above 80), meaning there remains safe room for further upside. From the Fibonacci retracement perspective, once firmly consolidating above $75,000 (the 0.236 retracement level), technical traders' next target will be directly set on the $85,000-$93,000 range. The only short-term concern is that $76,000 represents a previous resistance point from multiple bounce attempts in 2026, creating some profit-taking pressure, but the overall trend has shifted toward a bullish attack pattern.

2. The FOMC Meeting Approaches—Will the Market Reverse or Accelerate?

This represents the greatest uncertainty factor and the primary variable facing the short-term technical landscape. While the market widely expects the Federal Reserve's rate decision on March 19 to remain unchanged (very high probability of no change), the risk lies in the updated "dot plot" and economic projections.

From a technical analysis standpoint, before major macroeconomic events, markets typically experience "increased volatility" or "liquidity contraction." If the dot plot shows further reduced rate-cut expectations (hawkish), risk assets may come under pressure, causing the token price to pull back to support levels. However, on-chain data shows that enterprise-level buying (such as Strategy's continued accumulation) and continuous net inflows into spot ETFs are providing strong "technical support" for the market. Therefore, regardless of the meeting outcome, as long as price does not effectively break below $74,000 (the MA7 and strong support level from the breakout platform), the current uptrend channel will remain intact, and a brief spike down may actually attract more buying interest.

3. Trading Logic: Chase Rallies or Take Profits?

Based on the aforementioned "bullish but facing macro variables" technical backdrop, the optimal strategy should be "buy dips rather than chase highs or make blind exits."

1. Long Logic: The daily MA7 (approximately $74,000) has formed strong support, and the 4-hour Bollinger Band midline is also rising. For those without positions, this represents a "right-side trading" entry point. If price stabilizes in the $74,000-$74,500 zone, it's an opportunity for a light long position, with stop loss set below $73,500, targeting a continued test toward $76,500-$77,000.
2. Wait-and-See Logic: Since the FOMC is the largest short-term variable, chasing highs around $76,000 has lower cost-effectiveness. Once momentum stalls at resistance (such as a doji or indecision candle near $76,000), the short term may first pull back to build strength.
3. Warning Signal: Despite the sharp price rise, market sentiment remains in the "extreme fear" zone (23). This divergence between price-volume and sentiment indicates many investors have missed the move. Only when sentiment turns euphoric and RSI breaks above 80 should vigilance for a potential phase top increase.

Summary: BTC has achieved a technical breakout, but the $76,000 level combined with the FOMC meeting may intensify short-term volatility. Rather than guessing whether $80,000 can be reached in one shot, it's better to focus on $74,000 as the short-term bullish-bearish dividing line. Above this level, maintain bullish positioning; a break below requires a defensive stance. ETH shows stronger momentum but equally requires attention to resistance confirmation around $2,400.