This Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain the interest rate range at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged, which is already market consensus with a probability exceeding 99%. What deserves attention is that multiple officials at the January meeting proposed deleting language suggesting "the next action will be rate cuts." If this modification is implemented this time, it will mark the Federal Reserve's first admission that the easing cycle may have already ended, carrying extremely strong signal significance.
Regarding the dot plot, the December dot plot showed that 12 out of 19 officials predicted at least one rate cut this year, but if only 3 of them change their stance, the median forecast could shift to "zero rate cuts," which would place renewed pressure on Bitcoin. Conversely, if this dot plot shows 2 or more rate cuts this year, Bitcoin will be directly pushed to impact 80,000 or even higher.
As for Powell's press conference, the Tai Chi master will be responsible for interpreting policy signals for the second-to-last time. However, there is one issue: during the transition period between old and new chairs, capital follows expectations. From the chair to the board of governors seats, it's inevitable that people leave and the tea goes cold—Powell's remarks will have reduced reference value. His statements on inflation risks and the Middle East situation may reveal the Federal Reserve's true inclination.
Follow Mo Yan, focus on contract spot ambushes, the team still has positions, get on board quickly#币 $BTC $ETH
This Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain the interest rate range at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged, which is already market consensus with a probability exceeding 99%. What deserves attention is that multiple officials at the January meeting proposed deleting language suggesting "the next action will be rate cuts." If this modification is implemented this time, it will mark the Federal Reserve's first admission that the easing cycle may have already ended, carrying extremely strong signal significance.
Regarding the dot plot, the December dot plot showed that 12 out of 19 officials predicted at least one rate cut this year, but if only 3 of them change their stance, the median forecast could shift to "zero rate cuts," which would place renewed pressure on Bitcoin. Conversely, if this dot plot shows 2 or more rate cuts this year, Bitcoin will be directly pushed to impact 80,000 or even higher.
As for Powell's press conference, the Tai Chi master will be responsible for interpreting policy signals for the second-to-last time. However, there is one issue: during the transition period between old and new chairs, capital follows expectations. From the chair to the board of governors seats, it's inevitable that people leave and the tea goes cold—Powell's remarks will have reduced reference value. His statements on inflation risks and the Middle East situation may reveal the Federal Reserve's true inclination.
Follow Mo Yan, focus on contract spot ambushes, the team still has positions, get on board quickly#币 $BTC $ETH