Current Stage: Long positions have substantial unrealized gains, short positions are deeply trapped, price has surged and is one step away from previous highs, high open interest, market euphoria but short-term momentum weakening.
Performance Process
1. Lure Longs and Pump Higher: Rally to 0.82-0.85 to touch previous highs, display large buy orders on the order book to create breakthrough illusion, pump talk in forums saying "watch for 1", seize opportunity to distribute holdings in batches within 0.8-0.85 range.
2. Rapid Crash: Pull support orders and smash down with large sell orders to 0.68-0.7, break short-term moving averages, create panic with volume, trap those who chased highs at 0.75-0.85.
3. Weak Rebound for Hope: Rally back to 0.72-0.74 to create false bottom impression, spread narrative that "washout is buying opportunity", let bottom-fishing capital take high-position chips.
4. Gradual Decline and Consolidation: Oscillate in 0.65-0.75 range, small fluctuations for repeated liquidations, gradually complete distribution, final shift of center of gravity completes exit.
Outcome Forecast
Short-term 0.65-0.80 oscillation distribution, mid-term likely breaks 0.6 even returning to 0.4-0.5, without positive news chips completely transfer to retail traders.
$SIREN Market Maker Script Simulation:
Current Stage: Long positions have substantial unrealized gains, short positions are deeply trapped, price has surged and is one step away from previous highs, high open interest, market euphoria but short-term momentum weakening.
Performance Process
1. Lure Longs and Pump Higher: Rally to 0.82-0.85 to touch previous highs, display large buy orders on the order book to create breakthrough illusion, pump talk in forums saying "watch for 1", seize opportunity to distribute holdings in batches within 0.8-0.85 range.
2. Rapid Crash: Pull support orders and smash down with large sell orders to 0.68-0.7, break short-term moving averages, create panic with volume, trap those who chased highs at 0.75-0.85.
3. Weak Rebound for Hope: Rally back to 0.72-0.74 to create false bottom impression, spread narrative that "washout is buying opportunity", let bottom-fishing capital take high-position chips.
4. Gradual Decline and Consolidation: Oscillate in 0.65-0.75 range, small fluctuations for repeated liquidations, gradually complete distribution, final shift of center of gravity completes exit.
Outcome Forecast
Short-term 0.65-0.80 oscillation distribution, mid-term likely breaks 0.6 even returning to 0.4-0.5, without positive news chips completely transfer to retail traders.
Retail Avoid Pitfalls Reminder
Spot positions: reduce holdings at highs (near 0.8); Futures: don't chase highs, bottom-fish wait for volume stabilization below 0.60, avoid catching falling knives.