Jin10 Data Organization: Daily Global forex Market News Express (July 4)

USD: 1. Trump: A tariff letter will be issued on Friday, with a range of 10%-70%, starting from August 1. 2. US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data far exceeded expectations, and interest rate futures traders abandoned bets on a Fed rate cut in July. 3. Basset: If the euro reaches 1.2 against the dollar, Europeans will scream. This will ensure that the dollar continues as the global reserve currency. 4. Fed’s Bostic: The labor market conditions remain generally healthy. The US economy may experience prolonged high inflation. Major non-USD currencies: 1. ECB official Demarco: The euro will not replace the dollar’s status as a reserve currency. 2. Japan’s FY2025 wage increase forecast revised down to 5.25%, staying above 5% for two consecutive years. 3. Japan’s small opposition party criticizes the BOJ’s quantitative tightening plan. 4. BOE survey shows UK companies have lowered their salary growth expectations for this year. 5. Lagarde: Economic improvement is needed to enhance the euro’s global standing. 6. ECB warns of the impact of the heatwave on inflation and economic growth. 7. ECB Governing Council member Wensch: No unease about betting on another rate cut. Price risks are skewed to the downside. 8. ECB meeting minutes: Some members believe the current interest rate level should be maintained. Officials emphasized the potential danger of euro appreciation for exporters. 9. According to a Reuters survey: Among 27 economists, 19 said the RBNZ will maintain the interest rate at 3.25% on July 9. Among 22 economists, 16 believe the RBNZ will lower the rate to 3.00% in the third quarter; the year-end interest rate median forecast is 3.00% (up from 2.75% in May survey). Others: 1. Swiss inflation rebounds but remains close to deflation levels. 2. Indonesia will sign a memorandum of understanding with US partners before the deadline for tariff negotiations. 3. Polish central bank governor: The possibility of Poland lowering rates in September exists if data permits.