Bitcoin saw a withdrawal of 1.2 billion USD from Wall Street: 3 scenarios that could drive a rapid upward trend

Crypto investment products recorded a net outflow of approximately 1.2 billion USD last week, primarily focusing on spot Bitcoin ETFs in America. The week ending on November 7 was one of the strongest weeks for capital outflows since the end of summer. Daily data shows that risk reduction activities occurred in almost all sessions, only pausing slightly midweek.

Specifically, the Bitcoin spot ETF in America recorded a net outflow of -1.21 billion USD over five sessions, nearly matching the total outflows globally from CoinShares for listed crypto products. The concentration in America indicates that this is a correction due to the ETF, rather than a comprehensive capital withdrawal.

Since then, the daily sessions have become more active. On November 10, the market recorded an inflow of 1.2 million USD, and on November 11, it reached 524 million USD for spot Bitcoin ETFs in America.

In the report before ( ending 3/11), CoinShares recorded a net outflow of 360 million USD, primarily from America. Bitcoin ETP lost 946 million USD, while Solana products remained positive thanks to the appeal of American spot ETFs.

ETF Capital Flow and Signals from Derivatives

The outflow of capital reflects increased selling pressure last week, with the American channel leading the weekly direction. Along with that, the derivatives market also adjusted: the three-month basic interest rate maintained 4–6% compared to the double-digit levels during hot increase phases; borrowing rates decreased and open interest ( Bitcoin slightly dropped. This is a sign of reduced leverage and position restructuring, rather than forced liquidation.

More than 1 billion USD in long positions were liquidated on major coins during the fall, indicating a cleaning up of leveraged positions rather than the emergence of new structural sellers. Out of a total of 1.17 billion USD in global outflows, American spot Bitcoin ETF accounted for nearly all with -1.21 billion USD.

When the week primarily withdraws capital from ETFs and the base interest rate is low, the next move depends on whether the ETF flows stabilize again. If the daily sessions shift to a net of 150–300 million USD, the price of Bitcoin usually resets to a balance level, leading to adjustments in the interest rate structure and open contracts.

Three ETF scenarios that could change the trend

1. Reset and recovery: Three consecutive green net ETF sessions at ~200 million USD/day, basic interest rate 8–10%, OI gradually increasing again. This is a sign of cash demand returning, not chasing leverage.
2. Expand Warning: Withdrawal line >1 billion USD/week, 4–5 consecutive red sessions, base interest rate 0–3%, open interest decreases. Passive capital withdrawal pressure continues, the market adjusts over time.
3. Quick recovery: A large net ETF session >750 million USD, turning the week into a net inflow, with a basic interest rate >12–15%. It is necessary to monitor borrowing rates to avoid leverage at the end of the cycle.

In general, the sequence of developments: CoinShares released data last week on Monday, daily ETF flows updated cash signals, while the derivatives structure adjusted for risk.

The Importance of America ETF

According to CoinShares, the data only includes listed ETPs and ETFs, not counting off-exchange wallet rotations. Thus, the outflow of -1.2 billion USD last week was mainly due to ETFs, not market sell-offs.

The basic interest rate of 4–6% indicates a reduction in leverage, which is often a prerequisite for sustainable upward momentum when cash demand returns. The American channel remains the main driving force both upwards and downwards, in line with the influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs in America.

For traders and capital allocators in the next 2–4 weeks:

• Monitor Farside to receive signals of three consecutive green days >200 million USD/session.
• Observing the three-month basic interest rate around 8-10% and funding remains stable.
• Monitor the gradually increasing OI on CME and offshore markets.
• Bad case: withdrawal line >1 billion USD, flat basic interest rate, open interest fall.
• Quick recovery case: a day of large net ETF, steep term structure, and increasing OI.

Currently, the capital withdrawal week is due to the ETF, with the focus still on monitoring the flow of American ETFs, along with the base interest rate and open interest to confirm the trend. Solana and XRP products remain relatively stable while Bitcoin and Ether lead the capital withdrawal; details will be updated next Monday.

Thach Sanh