Bitwise: Bitcoin will enter a 10-year period of stable growth! Returns may not be astonishing but still strong

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer believes that Bitcoin will bid farewell to the four-year cycle, entering a decade of low volatility and institutional-led steady growth, and will reach new highs again in 2026 under favorable regulatory conditions.

Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan predicts that over the next ten years, Bitcoin will show a steady upward trend rather than explosive growth, emphasizing its stable returns.

“I believe we are in a sustained 10-year phase of steady, strong returns. Although the returns are not astonishing, they are robust, with lower volatility, and will fluctuate over time,” Hougan said on CNBC Friday.

Hougan predicts a paradigm shift for Bitcoin. He expects this cryptocurrency to bid farewell to the four-year “boom and bust” cycle and shift toward a “10-year grind” characterized by sustained but no longer explosive returns. In recent interviews and the company’s annual outlook, Hougan forecasts that although digital assets will perform modestly by the end of 2025, driven by institutional adoption and favorable regulation, Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high in 2026.

Hougan remains optimistic that 2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin.

This outlook comes after a challenging year for digital assets. Bitcoin has fallen about 7% so far this year, currently trading around $87,000, down more than 30% from its October peak of $126,000. He attributes this sluggish performance to residual retail investor expectations based on the traditional four-year halving cycle, which has historically triggered sharp rallies followed by deep corrections.

The four-year cycle has effectively ended

Hougan stated recently on CNBC: “The four-year cycle has actually ended.” He emphasized that the effects of halving, interest rate fluctuations, and leverage-driven speculation are weakening. Instead, he foresees the next decade as a period of “robust but not astonishing” growth, with Bitcoin achieving sustainable growth amid volatility, thanks to institutional capital inflows that help suppress volatility.

In Bitwise’s early-month report, co-authored by Hougan and research head Ryan Rasmussen, titled “Top 10 Cryptocurrency Predictions for 2026,” the firm is very bullish on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. The primary prediction is that, driven by accelerating institutional demand, spot ETF adoption, and a pro-cryptocurrency regulatory environment under the Trump administration, Bitcoin will “break the four-year cycle and reach a new all-time high.” Hougan highlights the role of ETFs, predicting that as platforms like Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill expand distribution channels, ETFs will absorb over 100% of Bitcoin’s new supply—about 166,000 BTC, worth approximately $15.3 billion at current prices.

Volatility is another key theme. Hougan predicts Bitcoin’s volatility next year will be lower than Nvidia’s stock, and notes that throughout 2025, this cryptocurrency’s volatility has already fallen below that of the chipmaker. This reduced risk stems from a shift in holder structure: institutional investors now rebalance their portfolios mechanically, offsetting retail momentum chasing, thus preventing deeper declines.

Hougan explains: “We are seeing a ‘stair-step upward, elevator-down’ pattern,” adding that thanks to continued buying by donation funds and ETFs, recent corrections have been limited to 30%, rather than the 60% seen historically. As an additional forecast, Bitwise expects Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks to decline further, reinforcing its role as a diversified asset.

“Ten-year grind”

Hougan’s “ten-year grind” thesis aligns with views from other industry leaders like ReserveOne CIO Sebastian Bea, who also believe Bitcoin’s performance will remain strong but will soften as market dynamics mature.

The expansion of stablecoins (now exceeding $300 billion in market cap) and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)—potentially bringing trillions of dollars onto the chain through custodial trusts and settlement firms like DTCC—are seen as long-term catalysts. However, Hougan warns that regulatory clarity, especially the passage of the CLARITY Act, is crucial; without it, the rally could be hindered, while approval would signal a “safe entry” for investors during pullbacks.

These predictions are not limited to Bitcoin. Bitwise foresees that, following Brown University and Harvard University, half of Ivy League endowments will allocate to cryptocurrencies, potentially unlocking billions from their $871 billion in assets. If the CLARITY Act passes, Ethereum and Solana are also expected to hit new highs, benefiting from the stablecoin and tokenization trends.

Hougan remains optimistic about 2026 overall, reiterating in interviews that markets may close higher by year-end, but he does not specify a price target.

According to sentiment indicators, Bitcoin is currently in the “extreme fear” zone, and Hougan’s outlook offers a rational contrarian view on the volatility in this space. With institutional participation increasingly dominant—evidenced by a record $85.7 trillion in crypto derivatives trading volume this year—2026 could mark the dawn of maturity for cryptocurrencies, shifting from speculative bets to a staple in diversified portfolios. Nonetheless, skeptics point out that human psychology may perpetuate cycle effects; despite structural changes, price trends could still be influenced.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: 《The Block》
• Original title: 《Bitwise Matt Hougan: Bitcoin enters a decade of steady growth, with strong but not astonishing returns》
• Original author: Anfei