Ethereum Exit Queue Hits Zero for the First Time, Over One Million ETH Stuck in Line; BitMine’s Massive Staking Drains Exchange Reserves, Creating a Supply Vacuum
(Background: Tom Lee’s Latest Prediction: Ethereum Could Reach $250,000, Market Cap Expected to Surpass $30 Trillion, Outpacing the Seven Major US Stocks)
(Additional Context: Wall Street’s Disenchantment with Ethereum: Why Are Fundamentals Diverging from ETH Price?)

Table of Contents

• Exit Clears, Entry Surges: Market Sentiment Flips 180 Degrees
• BitMine Investment: A Single Whale Reshapes the Validator Structure
• Liquidity Crisis: Exchange Holdings Hit Record Lows
• Policies and Upgrades: Double Tailwinds Reinforce Confidence

At the intersection of Silicon Valley and Wall Street, a signal of supply and demand imbalance lit up on the Ethereum blockchain tonight. As of January 5, 2026, only 32 ETH remain in the exit queue, indicating that no one wants to unlock their staked assets. Meanwhile, over one million ETH are queued for locking, pushing the market into a rare supply vacuum.

Exit Clears, Entry Surges: Market Sentiment Flips 180 Degrees

This stark contrast is especially striking compared to the capital withdrawal wave triggered by the Kiln security incident in late 2025. At that time, validators rushed to exit, with daily net outflows often reaching hundreds of thousands of ETH. Now, the situation has completely reversed; not only is the exit demand exhausted, but new entrants must wait about two weeks before their nodes can be activated. Asymetrix CTO Rostyk bluntly states:

“No one wants to sell their staked ETH.”

Data shows that the current entry queue has accumulated between 1.18 million and 1.3 million ETH, a new high since November 2025. Since the protocol can only add a limited number of validators at a time, the waiting period has extended to 13 to 17 days. This structural net inflow, formed at the end of 2025, has now become the main trend.

BitMine Investment: A Single Whale Reshapes the Validator Structure

Behind the surge in queued assets is the key player BitMine. Since December 26, 2025, this institution has repeatedly deposited single transactions of over 80,000 ETH into staking contracts, accumulating a total of 659,219 ETH staked, worth approximately $2.1 billion. With 4.1 million ETH held by BitMine, accounting for 3.4% of circulating supply, a single player has compressed more than half of the entry capacity.

From a balance sheet perspective, BitMine views ETH as a long-term yield-generating asset rather than short-term trading chips. While this strategy distorts the appearance of “organic demand,” it signals institutional-level confidence: as long as staking yields remain higher than traditional low-risk instruments, large capital is willing to lock in.

Liquidity Crisis: Exchange Holdings Hit Record Lows

The staking boom has directly impacted exchange reserves. According to data, only about 8.6% to 8.8% of the circulating supply remains on centralized exchanges, hitting lows not seen since 2015. Currently, about 29% of the total supply is locked in staking contracts, and with EIP-1559 continuing to burn fees, the amount of liquid tokens in the market is rapidly shrinking.

AlphaLedger founder Tevis points out that seller momentum is being drained, and the annualized staking return has become the new risk-free rate benchmark. He believes that “supply squeeze” conditions have reached a critical point, and any new spot demand may be forced to reprice through market adjustments.

Policies and Upgrades: Double Tailwinds Reinforce Confidence

Large-scale Wall Street capital is actively increasing their positions now, closely tied to policy and technological tailwinds. The US SEC and IRS have provided clear guidelines on taxing staking rewards and regulating spot ETFs, making compliance costs foreseeable.

On the technical side, Pectra’s upgrade improves validator efficiency, enabling institutions managing thousands of nodes like BitMine to achieve stable yields at lower operational costs. The combination of regulatory certainty and infrastructure optimization accelerates Ethereum’s shift from a “speculative token” to a “yield-generating asset.”

When exports are nearly blocked, entries remain crowded, and exchange shelves are empty, the market often has only one way to go: price re-pricing. For investors, the message at the start of 2026 is simple but direct: scarcity re-enters the pricing formula, and the future trend depends on how quickly someone is willing to sell. Currently, it seems no one is in a hurry to let go.

In the short term, whether the exit indicator can continue approaching zero and whether BitMine will increase its holdings again will be key observations. If the queue length decreases or new capital inflows slow down, the market may breathe; conversely, if entry continues to be congested, the supply vacuum could worsen.

Regardless of the outcome, this staking wave has reshaped the liquidity landscape and redefined institutional risk-reward models. A tongue-in-cheek remark in the community perhaps best captures the sentiment: “This year, the biggest uncertainty is that you can’t find ETH to buy.”