Has the chip washing been completed? The key script for Bitcoin to restart the bull market in 2026

As 2026 begins, the Bitcoin market has experienced significant chip cleansing and structural resetting. After profit-taking selling pressure eased, prices rebounded from the low $80,000 range to around $94,000, indicating that market sentiment is gradually recovering. However, the Glassnode report points out that there is dense capitulation supply above, which will be the biggest resistance for future market movements. The current market focus is on whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the short-term holder cost basis (STH Cost Basis(, which is seen as a key threshold for confirming a trend reversal. Meanwhile, changes in institutional funds and derivatives market structure also provide important clues for downside support.

Profit-taking pressure eases

In the first week of 2026, Bitcoin broke through the long-term consolidation zone around $87,000, rising about 8.5% to reach $94,400. This rally occurred after a significant easing of profit-taking pressure in the market. In late December 2025, realized profits (7-day moving average) sharply declined to $183.8 million per day, well below the high of $1 billion per day for most of Q4. As selling pressure weakened, the market stabilized, regained rationality, and supported a new wave of upward momentum. Therefore, the breakout in early January reflects that the market has effectively reset profit-taking pressure, allowing prices to move higher.

Resistance above: Breaking through STH-MVRV is key to trend confirmation

Although Bitcoin’s current price has rebounded, it is entering a structurally heavy supply zone. Data shows that between $92,100 and $117,400, there is a large accumulation of chips by recent buyers. Most of these investors entered near the cycle high, and as prices rise, they will face the temptation of “Breakeven Selling,” creating natural price resistance.

Currently, the STH-MVRV )Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model( indicator is at 0.95, meaning that recent investors are still on average about 5% unrealized loss. The market must decisively return to profitability (STH-MVRV > 1). Only by continuously recovering and stabilizing above the short-term holder cost basis can confidence among new market participants be restored, marking a shift from defensive to constructive market momentum. Otherwise, if prices remain below this level for a long time, confidence-driven demand may be eroded again. The short-term holder cost basis (STH Cost Basis) is currently at $99,100.

Note: MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) is calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s market cap by the total of the last on-chain transaction prices for each Bitcoin. In simple terms, it indicates whether Bitcoin’s current price is expensive or cheap relative to everyone’s “holding cost.” STH-MVRV )Short-Term Holder( only considers chips held for less than 155 days.

Support below: Institutional funds building a defensive buffer

Although resistance above is heavy, the support structure below is gradually strengthening. The capital flow into US spot ETFs has turned from net outflow at the end of 2025 to net inflow, indicating that institutional investors are re-accumulating in the $80,000 low range.

Additionally, digital asset financial company )DAT’s buying activity, though characterized by “event-driven” and “intermittent” features rather than continuous structural buying, has provided an important bottom buffer during price pullbacks. This “deep buy” behavior, combined with ETF capital inflows, has built a relatively solid defense line in the $80,000 to $90,000 range, limiting further price collapse.

Derivatives momentum: Accelerating after $95,000

After a 45% reduction in open interest at the end of the year, the derivatives market structure has become more favorable for bulls. As traders shift toward buying call options, market makers’ Gamma exposure in the $95,000 to $104,000 range has flipped to Short Gamma.

This means that once Bitcoin breaks through $95,000, market makers will be forced to buy spot or futures to hedge risks during price increases, creating mechanical buying that will “assist” in pushing prices higher. Unlike the suppressed volatility caused by Long Gamma at the end of the year, the current structure no longer limits upward movement; instead, breaking key levels could trigger an accelerated rally. Therefore, $95,000 can be seen as a trigger point for initiating a short-term explosive move.

This article: Chip cleansing complete? The key script for Bitcoin’s 2026 bull restart was first published on Chain News ABMedia.