Bitcoin Needs To Cross These Checkpoints For A New ATH In 2026

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan outlines three checkpoints crypto must clear in 2026, including the CLARITY Act and CME gap fills ahead!!!

The digital asset space has started the year with fresh energy. After a long period of uncertainty, the total market value climbed back to 3.3 trillion dollars in early January.

While the mood is mostly positive, expert observers like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan say that the road to a new all-time high is not yet clear.

He believes that three specific checkpoints now stand in the way of a true breakout.

The CLARITY Act

The biggest and first checkpoint happens inside the US Capitol. The Senate is currently preparing to review a major bill known as the CLARITY Act.

This bill aims to create a stable framework for digital assets in the United States. It would finally draw a clear line between different regulatory agencies and their powers.

Matt Hougan says that this law is the foundation for future institutional growth.

Matt Hougan says one hurdle is the CLARITY Act’s passage | source: BitWise

Senate committees have set a target date of January 15 to begin the official markup process.

This is where lawmakers are likely to align different versions of the bill before it goes to a final vote. Passing this act would remove the fear that rules could change overnight under a new administration.

For many big banks and hedge funds, this law is the “green light” they need to enter the market with more capital.

Stability After the October Meltdown

Another checkpoint involves moving past the ghosts last year. On October 10 of last year, the market suffered a massive crash that wiped out $19 billion in positions in a single day.

This event left a “heavy fog” over the industry and many people worried that a major market maker or a large hedge fund might collapse as a result. This fear kept prices suppressed for the rest of the year.

The market will need to achieve stability after the previous meltdown | source: BitWise

Bitwise notes that the early rally in 2026 happened because those fears are finally fading. Since no major companies went bankrupt by the end of December, investors feel more confident.

In other words, clearing this psychological hurdle allows the market to focus on growth rather than survival. However, traders are still sensitive to any news that looks like a repeat of that October volatility.

Related Reading: SEC Approves Bitwise Spot Chainlink ETF for NYSE Arca Listing

The Global Equity Markets

The third checkpoint is the health of the traditional stock market. While Bitcoin does not always move in lockstep with the S&P 500, they are both considered “risk assets.”

If the stock market were to crash by 20% or more, crypto would likely feel the pain too. Institutional traders often sell their most volatile holdings first when they need to cover losses elsewhere.

Finally, Hougan says the market needs a reasonable equity market | source: BitWise

Matt Hougan said that a stable equity market is important for crypto to reach new highs. Right now, most prediction markets see a low chance of a recession in 2026. If the S&P 500 continues its steady path, it creates an environment where investors feel safe enough to buy digital assets.