U.S. December Non-Farm Payroll Data Released Today: Only 50,000 New Jobs, Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls to 4.4%. The labor market slowdown has not collapsed, and the market is short-term betting on the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts, with gold and Bitcoin rising in tandem…
(Previous context: U.S. December ADP employment data shows a mild rebound “slightly below expectations,” Bitcoin weakens and drops below $92,000, Ethereum falls below $3,200)
(Additional background: Trump pressure, rate cut adjustments, stablecoins… Six unavoidable hurdles for the Federal Reserve by 2026)

Table of Contents

• Employment growth slows but remains positive
• Gold and crypto assets rise short-term
• Market bets on no change in January

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the December 2025 non-farm employment report today (9), marking the first set of employment data considered relatively “clean” by the market since the government shutdown effects from last fall gradually subsided. Due to reduced administrative factors and statistical distortions, this report is viewed by investors as an important indicator of the actual state of the U.S. labor market.

Employment growth slows but remains positive

Data shows that in December, non-farm employment increased by 50,000 jobs, below the market expectation of approximately 60,000 to 73,000 jobs, but still maintained positive growth for consecutive months, indicating that although hiring momentum has clearly slowed, there has not been a comprehensive contraction. Overall, the employment data is somewhat weak but does not reach the level of “rapid deterioration” feared by the market.

Notably, the unemployment rate for December fell from the revised 4.5% in November to 4.4%, better than the market expectation of 4.5%, becoming a positive highlight of this report. The decline in the unemployment rate indicates that, despite slowing employment growth, the labor market still shows resilience and has not experienced the rapid rise in unemployment typical of early recession stages.

Looking back at previous data, the BLS also revised down the employment figures for October and November. October’s non-farm employment was significantly revised from an initial decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000; November was adjusted from an increase of 64,000 to an increase of 56,000. In total, the employment levels for these two months are about 76,000 lower than previously reported, highlighting a clear cooling of the U.S. labor market in the second half of 2025.

Analysis indicates that this slowdown is related to multiple structural and policy factors, including the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce the size of the federal government, with many federal employees opting for buyouts; at the same time, increased trade tariff uncertainties and stricter immigration policies have made companies more conservative in their staffing strategies.

Gold and crypto assets rise short-term

Following the employment data release, financial markets quickly digested signals of “soft landing but weak momentum.” Safe-haven demand and expectations of a low-interest-rate environment increased, leading to short-term gains in some assets. Spot gold (XAU/USD) surged nearly $30 at one point.

In risk assets, cryptocurrencies also strengthened, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly breaking the $90,000 mark but then quickly retreating, currently around $90,705, with little change over the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) followed a similar trend, currently around $3,100.

Market bets on no change in January

According to the latest data from CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintaining interest rates in January has risen to 97%, almost certain that the Fed will not cut rates this month.

In response, Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, commented that this non-farm report helps clarify previous market doubts. Rosner said, “Goodbye, January! The Fed is very likely to hold steady for now because the labor market has shown initial signs of stability. The improvement in the unemployment rate indicates that the sharp increase in November was mainly due to some employees leaving early because of ‘postponed resignation’ policies and statistical distortions, not systemic weakness.”

Rosner further expects that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy stance in the short term, but as inflation and growth trends gradually become clearer, “there may still be two more rate cuts within the remaining time in 2026.”