Bitcoin Price Analysis: Three Major Signals Emerge, BTC May Once Again Break the $100,000 Barrier

January 15 News, Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated strong resilience in early 2026. After rebounding from the lows in early January, BTC briefly dipped below $90,000 last week, then quickly recovered and is now trading in the mid-$90,000 range. Multiple on-chain data points, sentiment indicators, and technical patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s price trend still has the potential to continue upward, with market focus returning to the key psychological level of $100,000.

From an on-chain behavior perspective, the first key signal comes from the STXO data of long-term Bitcoin holders—coins that have been idle for over five years before being spent. Analyst Darkfrost pointed out that in this cycle, the selling activity of long-term holders has been significantly weaker than in previous cycles. Previously, OGs’ selling volume approached the 90-day average of about 2,300 BTC, but it has now fallen to around 1,000 BTC and stabilized. Historical experience shows that when long-term holders reduce selling at high levels, it often indicates continued optimism about the market rather than the approach of a cycle top.

The second signal comes from market sentiment. Social data indicates that despite Bitcoin’s rebound, the overall discussion atmosphere has shifted toward caution or even bearishness, with negative comments at a ten-day high. Looking back at past cycles, Bitcoin often experienced sustained upward movements during periods of low sentiment and retail investor hesitation. This divergence between sentiment and price reduces the short-term risk of a top and provides psychological space for BTC to challenge $100,000.

The third signal is reflected in technical structure. Bitcoin has recently formed an ascending triangle pattern near its lows, with support levels gradually rising while resistance remains relatively stable, indicating increasing buying pressure. As the price breaks above the upper boundary of the pattern and momentum recovers, technical calculations point to a range of $100,000 to $107,000, an area that also serves as a previous high resistance and psychological barrier.

Based on current on-chain data, sentiment shifts, and technical patterns, Bitcoin price analysis suggests that a short-term retest of $100,000 is not a low-probability event, and the market is entering a critical validation phase.