It seems the cryptocurrency marketplace is likely to become chaotic today, as over $4.6 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ether options are about to expire. This is an important milestone that could significantly impact the short-term price movements of these two major assets.

Analysts warn that September options expiry often has an extra influence; historically, performance tends to be weaker during this period, and digital asset liquidity also tends to decrease.

Bitcoin dominates this expiry event, with a notional value reaching $3.38 billion. According to public data, there are 30,447 open contracts. The maximum pain point—the price level where most options become worthless—is at $112,000. Additionally, the current sell-to-buy ratio is 1.41, indicating a market leaning towards bearish sentiment.

Ether faces a similarly significant expiry, with a notional value of $1.29 billion. There are 299,744 open contracts, and the maximum pain point is at $4,400. The sell-to-buy ratio is 0.77, suggesting stronger buying demand. Analysts have observed a notable accumulation of bullish options above $4,500. Deribit points out this skewness.

Ether’s implied volatility has sharply risen to around 70%, signaling upcoming price fluctuations, especially after Ether’s recent drop of over 10% from its high. The market appears increasingly skeptical about the weakness in U.S. stocks and the WLFI index.

Similarly, Bitcoin’s implied volatility across various expiry dates has rebounded to about 40%, after experiencing a month of price adjustments. This retreat caused Bitcoin’s price to fall over 10%. However, traders seem to be taking a defensive stance, with nearly 30% of options trading volume today involving selling options.

As market sentiment shifts rapidly, analysts still emphasize that September is often a challenging month for the cryptocurrency market. Institutional shifts and quarterly settlements tend to suppress capital flows.

Although bearish sentiment dominates, once options expire, Bitcoin and Ether prices usually gravitate toward the maximum pain point levels. Bitcoin is currently trading at $111,391, and Ether at $4,326—both close to their respective maximum pain points. After expiry, the market typically stabilizes around 8:00 UTC, but volatility before and after can intensify.

Everyone should stay alert—will this expiry event lock in Bitcoin and Ether prices or trigger a rebound? Historically, September isn’t very friendly to bull runs, but the market’s defensive posture might suggest that any unexpected rally could lead to intense reallocation.

Note that this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Past performance may not indicate future results. Do you have other thoughts? Feel free to leave a comment! 😊