The current volatility in the crypto market is indeed quite significant. While there are many voices optimistic about the long-term prospects, short-term bubbles and speculative risks are evident, and this is a matter that needs to be taken seriously. Policy adjustments and technological advancements are the two main factors that basically determine market sentiment, and retail investors should always be cautious of overreacting emotions that could trigger a correction.

Let's first look at BTC. Recently, large deposits have increased, and selling pressure may be building up, so there is indeed short-term downside risk. But from a long-term perspective, the fundamentals remain quite solid—some leading institutions have accumulated a total of 3.2% of the supply, combined with expectations of US strategic reserves and continuous institutional buying, the support for a long-term bull market is still there. Now is not the time to chase highs; the key is whether the support levels can hold.

ETH is currently in a sustained downtrend, and no clear signs of a bottom have appeared yet. It is likely to retest the previous panic low of 2500-2570. Although there is support from a $120 billion ETF scale and a 31% staking rate, it is still advisable not to rush into bottom-fishing. Waiting for signals of a rebound resonance before entering the market is more prudent. If the rebound is confirmed, the target could be around 3700.

On the other hand, SOL presents a bullish opportunity. Expectations of crypto-friendly policies and the approval of ETFs are attracting traditional financial institutions like State Street to enter the market. From a valuation perspective, a P/S ratio of 122x is more cost-effective compared to ETH. System upgrades have also significantly enhanced reliability. Although large transfers happen frequently, the core positive logic remains unaffected.

BNB is also worth关注. On-chain stablecoin supply has already surpassed 15 billion, and the ecosystem activity is steadily increasing. Some institutional reserve plans may have speculative elements, but the overall positive outlook of the ecosystem is enough to outweigh these negative voices.