Tomorrow at 21:30 Beijing time, the US November CPI YoY data will be released, marking a critical moment that could influence the future direction of the entire crypto market. The market generally expects the CPI YoY to be between 3.0% and 3.1%, with the previous figure at 3.0%. This data is not just an economic indicator; it directly relates to the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace in 2026 and is also a key catalyst for short-term market fluctuations.

Imagine if the data exceeds expectations and breaks through 3.1%? That would mean inflation remains stubbornly high, and the dream of rate cuts might be delayed. The US dollar would appreciate, US Treasury yields would jump, and market risk appetite would plummet. In this scenario, Bitcoin could short-term plunge by 3%-8%, triggering chain reactions like leveraged liquidations and a market-wide dive, with altcoins being even more bloodied. Although it will be painful in the short term, don’t worry—the foundation of the bull market remains intact.

Conversely, if the CPI drops below 3.0%? That’s a different story. With inflation no longer a threat, easing policies could be intensified, and a dollar plunge would be inevitable. Hot money would flood into risk assets, and Bitcoin could potentially surge 5%-10 on the same day, with Ethereum and SOL likely to follow suit in a frenzy, possibly sparking a new major upward wave in the market.

What if the data exactly meets expectations? The most probable scenario is a "sell the news" pattern, meaning a slight initial fluctuation followed by continued upward movement. However, there’s a small detail to note—the core CPI YoY is actually the real indicator to watch closely; keep an eye on that number.

The current macro environment is particularly friendly to risk assets, so in cases of low or in-line expectations, the bulls have a higher chance of winning. Even if the data exceeds expectations, while it may seem alarming, from a longer-term perspective, it’s just a temporary noise.

Looking at the bigger picture, the logic of the crypto bull market remains unchanged; this round of CPI data is just one chapter in the overall story. Get ready for tomorrow’s volatility.