Is the year-end "Christmas rally" coming? Stock market historical data provides the answer

【Crypto World】As December reaches its midpoint, traders are pondering a familiar question—will there be a traditional “Christmas rally” at the end of the year?

On Thursday, the S&P 500 turned positive, rising by 0.8%, finally breaking a four-day losing streak. Will this rebound continue? Let’s look at historical data.

According to Castle Securities’ statistics, since 1928, the S&P 500 has increased in the last two weeks of December 75% of the time, with an average gain of 1.3%. In other words, based on nearly a century of data, the probability of a rally in the last two weeks of the year is indeed quite high.

This seasonal pattern is also recognized by institutions. Analysts from a leading investment bank’s trading team said, “Unless a black swan event occurs, the period we are entering is favorable for the bulls due to seasonal factors and positioning.” They further added, “It may not skyrocket dramatically, but there is still room for gains from now until the end of the year.”

It seems that this rally, while unlikely to be crazy, can still be expected to have steady gains.