#BTC资金流动性 【December Market Brief】Market Divergence Intensifies, Policy Becomes the Main Driver

The recent market trend is characterized by one keyword—uncertainty. There is too much macro-level noise, from Japan to the US, with central bank actions directly affecting the crypto market’s nerves.

**Japan’s Movements Are the Most Notable**

After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, there was a clear change in yen liquidity. This may sound distant from us, but it has a direct impact on the crypto market—arbitrage funds began to flow back, and risk assets came under pressure. Some market analysts believe that one of the background factors for Bitcoin’s recent volatility is related to changes in yen liquidity. Simply put, when Japanese people tighten their purse strings, high-risk crypto assets become less attractive.

**One Fed Statement, Market Drops Three Percent**

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the issue isn’t there. The key is that they lowered the expected number of rate cuts next year—fewer than before. The market was already mentally prepared for this outcome, but seeing the actual numbers still stings a bit. The funding environment remains tight, and it’s unrealistic to expect strong support for high-risk assets in the short term. For the crypto market, this signals ongoing pressure.

**Bitcoin’s Next Step Toward Traditional Finance**

Interestingly, despite market pressure, Bitcoin’s acceptance within traditional financial systems is increasing. Japanese company Metaplanet has entered the US market by issuing American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), meaning US retail investors can now indirectly hold Bitcoin exposure through more conventional channels—no need to directly access exchanges, and they can operate via traditional stock accounts. This is a signal: traditional finance is gradually trying to connect with Bitcoin assets.

**Payments Are the Ultimate Exit**

More practical innovations are coming from the payments sector. A US fintech company has launched a regulated, compliant Bitcoin payment system, targeting the traditional Bitcoin ATM industry—note that compliance issues with these ATMs have long been a sore point. The new system emphasizes security and compliance, indicating that crypto payments are moving from wild growth to institutionalization and commercialization. Whether it will ultimately become widespread remains to be seen, but the direction is clear.

**Stablecoins Are the True Connectors**

Market research shows that the total supply and trading volume of stablecoins are continuously reaching new highs. This phenomenon clearly indicates that—as regulatory frameworks gradually emerge—market participants are betting on stablecoins becoming a bridge. They retain crypto attributes while reducing volatility risk, meeting the needs of risk-averse investors. From this perspective, the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem is not hype but a genuine reflection of market demand.

**Negative Examples Are Also Important**

Recently, a US court sentenced a major crypto Ponzi scheme promoter to many years in prison. This case is symbolic—judicial authorities are showing zero tolerance for scams in the crypto space, which helps market participants take compliance and transparency more seriously. In other words, the gray areas are shrinking.

**Gradual Regulation Takes Shape, Clarity Is the Premise**

Legislation related to the structure of the US crypto market is expected to undergo a new round of review, and Asian markets are watching closely. Industry insiders generally believe that a clear regulatory framework is a necessary condition for the crypto industry to move from niche to mainstream and achieve large-scale adoption. Without it, even the most innovative technology may get stuck at the final step.

**Several Signals Worth Noticing in the Coin Sector**

Recently, Ripple executives stated that XRP’s price is not controlled by any single person or institution, sparking discussion within the community. Such statements usually appear when the market questions the future direction of certain coins. The market remains closely watching XRP’s long-term positioning and regulatory progress, and this waiting period often brings volatility.

Before the end of the year, a large number of Bitcoin options contracts will expire—this is a technical detail but can amplify short-term price fluctuations. If you are active near key price levels, this factor is worth noting, as both bulls and bears may create shifts around these times.

Overall, December’s market is not lacking in information, but in certainty. The pressure from policy and the innovations within the industry coexist, and how you choose to interpret this reflects your judgment of the long-term prospects of the crypto market.