The year-end market is indeed beginning to stir. Although some say that US stocks will enter holiday mode next week, with early closes on Wednesday and a halt on Thursday, the real turning point is likely just beginning. Around Christmas, the appointment of the next Fed chairman may become a key lever for the global financial markets.

How important is this position? Simply put, he controls the master switch of global liquidity. Once he eases up, risk assets like Bitcoin can soar; if he tightens, even the Nasdaq will feel the pressure.

According to the latest data from the market betting, the three main candidates each have their advantages and disadvantages. Kevin Hassett has the highest support (about 54%) and is considered a typical "dove" representative, which would likely lead to an increase in liquidity if he takes office; Kevin Walsh (about 21%) is classified as a "hawk" advocating for strict monetary policy, which would put greater pressure on the market; Christopher Waller (about 14%), as the current technical figure in the Fed, has a neutral and stable style, leaning towards continuing the existing policy framework.

The policy orientations of the three individuals differ greatly, making it impossible for the market to price in advance; the volatility structure is already locked in for the short term. If Hassett is appointed, expectations of liquidity easing will drive up crypto assets, triggering a new round of "water flow bull market"; if Waller takes office, it will mean a tightening cycle, and various risk assets will have to go through an adjustment phase; if Waller continues in his current position, the market will maintain a relatively balanced oscillation pattern.

Next, we need to focus on several key time points (Beijing time): Late Tuesday night, the final GDP for the third quarter in the US will be released, which can reveal how real the economic growth is; Late Wednesday night, the Bank of Canada meeting minutes and the US initial jobless claims data will be published, which will further confirm the true state of the economy through employment data. These figures will directly influence the market's expectations regarding the policy inclination of the next Fed chair.