The 90k positive gamma cap continues to have an impact, but the CVD shows a persistent bull divergence. However, is the price now accelerating negative Gamma as it goes down? Today’s market data can be described as the most divided day in recent times; there’s a hint of something unusual....

Today when I got up and took a look, 90k has once again become a major resistance zone.. As mentioned yesterday, the gamma is too large around 90k.. The damping is significant.
Because the hedging behavior of options market makers suppresses fluctuations... When prices rise, they have to sell spot to hedge.
So without particularly strong buying pressure caused by favorable news, it's not that easy to rise above 90k here.
The 90k positive gamma is mainly influenced by the 23 billion giant options expiring this Friday, the 26th.

Let's continue to take a look at the current market data..

There haven't been many analyses related to market data in the past couple of days.. Mainly because the market data is extremely balanced.. The buy and sell orders are in a very balanced state within a 5% price range (Figure 1)
So the order book continues to have no more reference today..

From the CVD perspective (Figure 2), after rising from 84k, it is currently in a large CVD bull divergence state.. The CVD has already made a lower low than during the 84k period. (Dominated by active selling) However, the price remains strong at 88k.
It indicates that there is still strong passive buying support around 88k to absorb this wave of selling.

At the same time, from yesterday to today, during the process of surging from 88k to 90k and then returning to 88k, the spot market has endured over 200 million in net selling pressure.. However, the price still maintained around 88k, and the 200 million in net selling was in vain. So this is still a sign of strong buying near 88k..

From the CVD perspective, 88k seems to be a strong support zone..

But today's GEX makes me feel a bit strange...
There isn't much confidence here.. Need to observe until at least after 4 PM..

Refer to Figure 3 for specific performance.

Currently, the area around 90k is still a strong positive gamma zone (options market makers suppress Fluctuation, there is no major positive news to break 90k).

However, the current price at 88k, as well as the lower level at 87k, are both in the negative gamma zone, which means that if the price moves down from 88k, the hedging by options market makers will exacerbate the fluctuation (the further the price drops, the more they need to sell spot to hedge).

It basically needs to reach 86k to have a buffer in the positive gamma range..

However, this wave of negative gamma at 87k and 88k, as well as positive gamma at 86k, is influenced by the options expiring today.. Therefore, this situation will be resolved after 4 PM..

So it's better to wait and see before 4 o'clock.

At the same time, after 4 o'clock, during the period until the opening of the US stock market, the influence of the options on the 26th will return.. The options on the 26th have a positive gamma zone above 87k, while 86k and 85k are in the negative gamma zone...

So to conclude, the situation today may be relatively complex...

The ideal scenario for bulls is to maintain 88k before 4 PM and then successfully deliver. The market is consolidating in the positive gamma zone of the options for the 26th... waiting for the US stock market to open to continue determining the direction..

For a bearish scenario, it would be ideal to hit around 86k before 4 PM this afternoon, using today's expiring negative gamma, and then consolidate in the 86k buffer zone for a while.
Then at 4 o'clock, the 86k positive gamma buffer is lifted, and when it is again affected by the negative gamma of the 26th options, it further plummets...

But which direction to develop specifically depends on the initiation of the funding situation...

On SKEW, it continues to hover near the 0 axis today... there is currently no significant guiding meaning...

So overall, it's hard to say today.. It's better to wait and see for a while...