How much does the Federal Reserve's policy stance impact the cryptocurrency market? According to some analysts' predictions, if by the first quarter of next year the Federal Reserve still maintains a high interest rate policy, remains on hold, and pauses rate cuts, while inflationary pressures remain unresolved, then Bitcoin could come under pressure and fall back to around $70,000, and Ethereum could also drop to approximately $2,400. This logic is quite straightforward—slowing economic growth and high interest rates will undermine the appeal of risk assets. As a high-risk asset, cryptocurrencies are most vulnerable in this macro environment. Of course, the final trend will still depend on the Federal Reserve's actual actions and the real performance of inflation data.