Bitcoin's trajectory through 2026 is shaping up to be critical. The key question isn't just where the price peaks—it's whether we see a consolidation around $90k-$120k range before the real surge, or if momentum carries straight through to fresh all-time highs.

Historically, post-halving cycles suggest we could hit anywhere from $150k to north of $200k depending on macro conditions and institutional adoption curves. But here's the wild card: if we factor in geopolitical shifts and central bank policies, the volatility might dwarf those numbers entirely.

The real tell will be Q2-Q3 2026. That's when we'll know if this cycle mirrors 2017's trajectory or breaks the pattern completely.