Looking at the recent RIVER market trend, my judgment is opposite to that of most people. When the price was above $17 with overwhelming popularity and everyone was chasing the rally, I chose to go short instead.

How do I analyze the technicals? It's actually quite clear:

First, on the 1-hour chart, there were two consecutive attempts to push above around $17.8 but both failed to hold, indicating that the bulls are clearly losing strength. This double top resistance is a very obvious reversal signal in the short term.

Second, the volume then increased as the price broke below the MA7 and MA25 moving averages, confirming a trend reversal. Once such a technical pattern appears, it’s probabilistically wise to respect it.

Currently, I hold a stable short position with 5x leverage, and the unrealized profit has already reached over 152%. Trading, in essence, is not gambling but about finding the side with the highest probability amid uncertainty. The take-profit target is initially set at the 4.0 level, planning to hold for a medium-term trend.

Would love to hear everyone’s thoughts—do you think RIVER will drop to single digits this wave? Share your ideas in the comments.