January 4 | ETH Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $3,149 (as of 10:00 on January 4)

Short-term Outlook: Technical indicators are leaning bullish, with potential for continued upward movement toward the $3,178-$3,200 range. If the $3,114 support holds, the probability of further gains is 65%; however, the 4-hour RSI has reached 75 in overbought territory, indicating a risk of technical correction back to the $3,100-$3,077 zone.

Key Support Levels: $3,114 (1-hour Bollinger middle band), $3,077 (1-hour Bollinger lower band), $3,057 (4-hour Bollinger middle band)

Key Resistance Levels: $3,178 (4-hour Bollinger upper band), $3,250 (Daily SuperTrend), $3,152 (start of dense short liquidation zone)

Market Overview

Price Performance

• Opened at $3,130 on January 4, with a high of $3,160 during the session, maintaining a range of $3,149-$3,158 in the morning Beijing time
• 24-hour increase of +0.65%, continuing the upward trend since January 3
• Market cap at $379.8 billion, remaining the second-largest in the crypto market

Trading Dynamics

• Net inflow of 10,644 ETH on January 3 (inflows of 499,885 ETH, outflows of 489,241 ETH), shifting from net outflow to net inflow compared to the previous day
• Exchange reserves at 16.62 million ETH, slightly up from January 2, in a recent upward trend

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe Momentum Indicators

Key Technical Levels

• Price near the 1-hour Bollinger upper band ($3,151), closely testing resistance
• Short-term moving averages are in a bullish alignment: EMA12($3,129) > EMA26($3,115) > SMA50($3,094)
• The 4-hour Bollinger band shows price trading between the middle band($3,057) and the upper band($3,178)
• The daily chart has not yet broken above the SMA200($3,602), indicating long-term resistance remains

Chart Patterns

• Lower timeframe charts display an ascending channel with higher highs and higher lows
• Daily breakout above the Bollinger upper band($3,138), with a strong MACD golden cross signal

Derivatives Market

Futures Positions

• Total open interest at $41.7 billion, down 0.52% in 24 hours
• Funding rate divergence: Binance +0.0065% (longs pay), Gate -0.0055% (shorts pay)

Options Market

• Open interest at $7.02 billion, down 0.16% in 24 hours
• Recent maximum pain point: $3,100 expiry on Jan 4, $3,050 expiry on Jan 5-7

Liquidation Distribution

• $30.36 million liquidated in 24 hours, with short liquidations at $22.94 million versus long liquidations at $7.43 million, indicating significant short squeeze
• Dense liquidation zones: below $3,040 with accumulated long positions of $82.5 million (clustered between $3,070-$3,141); above $3,254 with accumulated short positions of $47.8 million (starting from $3,152)

Derivative Signal Interpretation

• Short liquidations account for 75.5%, supporting bullish sentiment
• Liquidation zones align closely with technical levels: $3,114-$3,141 as a support zone for longs, $3,152-$3,178 as a short pressure zone

Community Sentiment

Price Discussion Focus

• Community attention on breaking key resistance in early January, with a short-term downtrend channel broken, creating upward pressure
• Analysts note structural similarities with other assets, expecting consolidation followed by further advance
• Repeated references to long-term high-price targets influence short-term optimism

Fundamental Narrative

• Increased Ethereum network activity seen as a positive signal of network recovery
• Upcoming scaling upgrades and state management optimizations boost community confidence
• Emphasis on DeFi dominance, institutional stablecoin adoption, and real-world asset tokenization as core advantages by 2026

KOL Opinions

• Traders mention that volume recovery requires catalysts to sustain upward momentum
• Chart analysts specify support and resistance levels, setting further upside conditions as long as key zones are held
• Founders’ visions focus on decentralized infrastructure, shaping market perceptions of Ethereum’s competitiveness

Summary

Technical and derivatives data show clear bullish advantages: 1-hour and 4-hour ADX indicate strong trends, capital flow metrics remain inflow, and short liquidations account for 75.5%, creating a squeeze effect. Price remains close to the Bollinger upper band, with short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment.

However, caution is warranted as the 4-hour RSI hits 75 in overbought territory, and the daily chart has not yet broken above the long-term SMA200($3,602). If the price drops below $3,114, a technical correction toward $3,077-$3,100 could occur; if support holds and a breakout above $3,178 is confirmed, the price could target $3,200-$3,250 higher.

Community sentiment remains positive, with network activity recovery and upgrade expectations providing fundamental support. Close monitoring of the $3,114 support level and confirmation of a breakout above $3,178 is recommended.