#美联储政策 The Bank of Japan's rate hike this time is really worth paying close attention to. A 98% probability essentially means it's a done deal, moving from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995 — the era of ultra-low interest rates for 30 years is coming to an end.

The issue lies in the chain reaction. Japan holds $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. Once Japanese bond yields rise, funds will inevitably withdraw from the U.S. market to chase higher yields. This directly threatens the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. Think about it carefully: this year, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields was the core logic supporting the stock market rally. If this logic reverses and Treasury yields climb again, the entire market's liquidity expectations will be rewritten.

History shows us that when macro policy shifts, retail investors are the easiest to be caught off guard. Policy battles at the central bank level and changes in government bond yields will eventually transmit to the crypto space. I've seen too many people start leveraging up to buy the dip before the rate cut expectations are truly shattered, only to get burned when policy changes unexpectedly.

The current strategy is very simple — lower expectations, control risk exposure, and observe. Don't be fooled by short-term rebounds; macro turning points often come with intense volatility. Living longer is more important than living faster.