#2026年比特币行情展望 Recently, there have been interesting changes in the market sentiment. The altcoin season index has surprisingly risen back to 27, which is uncommon in recent months. The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 25, indicating that the sentiment has indeed cooled down, but don't over-interpret it.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is only 16.6%, what does this mean? The expectation of a tightening US policy may continue. On the crypto side, the trading volume of spot ETFs has already surpassed $2 trillion, accumulating a substantial size.

On-chain activity is also ongoing—Bitmine has staked another 49,088 ETH, equivalent to $152.7 million. Long-term holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum seem to be increasing their positions. Even more astonishing, the total crypto venture capital financing in 2025 is projected to reach $49.75 billion, a 433.2% surge compared to 2024, indicating a high level of capital inflow.

From a technical perspective, there's a key data point to watch: if Bitcoin breaks through $93,000, the liquidation strength of net short positions on major exchanges could reach around 528 million, which might cause some turbulence. Additionally, the US government currently holds about $30.7 billion in crypto assets, with BTC accounting for 97% of that, making this holding size noteworthy. Will Bitcoin's subsequent trend test new highs again? It's worth observing.