2026-01-05 00:24:31

Citibank economist Faraz Syed recently expressed the view that Australia's November inflation data could alter market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy. According to Citi's analysis, the probability of rate hikes in February and May may be reassessed.

Specifically, Citi predicts that the average inflation rate this year will be around 3.3%. However, Syed emphasized the upside risks in the data—that is, actual inflation could be higher than expected.

More notably, the trend in the bond market is worth paying attention to. If the Reserve Bank of Australia indeed initiates an interest rate hike cycle earlier than expected, traders may currently be severely underestimating this possibility. Currently, the bond market prices in only about 10 basis points for a rate hike in February, indicating that market vigilance is still insufficient. Once inflation data exceeds expectations, the bond market could experience more intense sell-offs in the short term.

For crypto market traders, a shift in central bank policy is often an important indicator. Australia's recent movements are also worth closely monitoring.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
7
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

SilentObserver

· 7h ago

Wait, a 10 basis point pricing? How underestimated is that... Once the data explodes, what will the bond market look like? --- If the Reserve Bank of Australia really shifts its stance, the crypto side should have already reacted, but are they still idling? --- Citigroup is stirring up anxiety again. Who doesn't know about inflation risks? The question is whether they will actually raise rates. --- The bond market's delayed reaction is truly outrageous. If this inflation data exceeds expectations, there will be a short-term bloodbath. --- Enjoy the show, enjoy the show. If the Reserve Bank of Australia really moves, the entire market will likely need to be re-priced. --- The 3.3% average forecast sounds okay, but this wording about upside risks... is a bit bad.

View OriginalReply0

BlockchainTalker

· 17h ago

actually, if we examine rba policy through the lens of game theory... the bond market pricing 10bps for feb hike is empirically just *wrong*. like seriously underpriced.

Reply0

quietly_staking

· 01-05 00:54

Is the Reserve Bank of Australia really about to act? The bond market's reaction is a bit sluggish; a 10 basis point change hasn't been fully reflected yet.

View OriginalReply0

PumpAnalyst

· 01-05 00:54

10 basis points pricing? This big player is really good at cutting leeks, the bond market should wake up --- If inflation really exceeds expectations, this short-term sell-off is incredible. Everyone, get ready for risk management --- I trust Citi's forecast, but the upside risk is the key. Brothers, you must keep a close eye on this data --- If the RBA really raises interest rates, crypto will explode. Don't be fooled by the rebound, get in early --- 3.3% sounds stable, but how much can it actually reach? The market's alertness is not enough, which is very dangerous --- The bond market is so underestimating the probability of rate hikes. Once inflation data is out, it will crash the market. The opportunity to profit from the spread is here --- Basically, the big players are still inducing long positions. After the data is released, they will violently rally to cut the leeks. Everyone, watch out for taking profits --- Once Australia's policy shift is confirmed, it's only a matter of time before crypto breaks below support. Bearish!

View OriginalReply0

MultiSigFailMaster

· 01-05 00:52

Wait, the bond market is only pricing in 10 basis points? That's really underestimated to the point of being ridiculous... Once the November data explodes, let's see a bond massacre play out in the short term. Really, is the Reserve Bank of Australia going to raise interest rates early? Keep an eye on this wave; the crypto sector will definitely follow the fluctuations. Once again, inflation risks are rising... Citi's forecasts always seem a bit conservative; the actual situation might be even more intense. Honestly, if the Reserve Bank of Australia really tightens its stance this time, the impact on liquidity in the entire crypto market could be bigger than expected.

View OriginalReply0

CryptoWageSlave

· 01-05 00:50

The market is about to get slapped again, this time it's bonds. Pricing 10 basis points for the Reserve Bank of Australia is indeed a bit naive... --- Once inflation exceeds expectations, the RBA dares to move, and our crypto side will also experience volatility. --- To put it simply, Citigroup is hinting that the bond market hasn't fully reacted yet, just waiting to see how February blows up. --- A 3.3% inflation forecast, but the key point is the upside risk... Usually, when such words are used, the actual outcome tends to be higher than expected. --- If the RBA really raises interest rates, crypto will suffer. But on the flip side, could this also be a signal of early strategic positioning? --- Before the bond market gets slapped, should we run first or buy the dip... That's the real question.

View OriginalReply0

MemeTokenGenius

· 01-05 00:49

The Reserve Bank of Australia is up to something again. The bond market is sleeping too soundly. Once inflation explodes, it will definitely be a bloodbath.

View OriginalReply0