Recently, the trading data from a certain prediction platform has been interesting— they price the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January at 41%. This number in front of us is more convincing than some influencers' calls.

However, obviously some people remain skeptical. The issue is that many still habitually follow opinions rather than look at the results of traders betting with real money. The latter often reflects the truth more accurately—because no one is willing to risk real money on incorrect predictions.

Interestingly, there is always a group in the market that switches positions casually—bullish today, bearish tomorrow. This kind of dual-position betting is especially common in the crypto market. So rather than getting caught up in whose statements are right or wrong, it's better to look at data, fund flows, and real trading behaviors. That is the most honest voice in the market.