#比特币ETF资金流入 Looking at this data, I need to analyze calmly. ETF inflows are $25 billion, institutional holdings are 24%, and retail investors are retreating by 66% — on the surface, BTC has fallen 5.4%, but what is the real story? The market is in a state of turnover.

This is what I want to remind everyone: don't be fooled by the price. Institutions continue to accumulate at high levels not because they are mistaken, but because they are looking at the cycle, not the daily K-line. We retail investors are used to chasing highs and selling lows, driven by FOMO, and the result is "retail selling while institutions buy." How ironic is this contrast?

My experience is that when most people are still using old logic to view a new era, it is often the most dangerous and the most opportunity-rich time. The so-called "darkest year" of 2025 actually completed the largest supply turnover — doesn’t this sound like the opposite logic of those pump-and-dump projects? The key difference is: this time, there is policy support, infrastructure is improving, and ETF investors show strong HODL resilience.

But I must clarify the risks: Federal Reserve policies, a strong dollar, bill delays, and uncertainties in mid-term elections — all still hang over us. Expect short-term fluctuations between $87,000 and $95,000, with the policy honeymoon period coming in the first half of 2026. Those gambling greedily on 2026 should also be prepared for increased volatility in the second half of 2026.

The core logic is simple: don’t FOMO into chasing highs, wait for oscillations to build positions in stages, focusing on the policy window in the first half of 2026, not today’s price. That’s the way to survive long on the chain.