#以太坊大户持仓变化 ZEC this wave of decline, the bears haven't had enough yet

I've been watching ZEC's 1-hour chart throughout the entire trading session, combining on-chain data and real-time market movements. The conclusion is straightforward: it's not the time to bottom fish yet. When a rebound occurs, it's time to consider shorting.

**Technical analysis shows that the bears are in full control**

Looking at the candlestick chart, consecutive bearish candles, from the 520 threshold all the way down to the current 489.84, already touch the lower Bollinger Band (488.32). On the surface, it looks oversold, but the sign of a trend reversal hasn't appeared yet. What's more painful is that the Bollinger channel is expanding, with the middle band at 501.01 turning into a strong resistance. Any rebound to this level is a good opportunity for shorts.

Although the MACD indicator is still in positive territory (DIF 3.97), the histogram has flattened and started to weaken, and a dead cross on the hourly chart could happen at any moment. Trading volume has surged, with the 5-day moving average reaching 56.57 million. This volume-driven decline indicates that the main players are determined to exit. The key point is, as long as the previous low at 486.23 is broken, the psychological level at 480 will become the next target.

**On-chain funds are fleeing**

The top 10 ZEC addresses have net outflows of over 150,000 coins in the past 24 hours, with transfers to exchanges increasing by 30%. With such strong selling pressure, imagine how fierce the capital outflow is. The Network Value to Transactions ratio has surged—while the price is dropping, on-chain transaction activity has cooled, indicating no new buying interest coming in to scoop up the lows.

**No good news on the news front**

There are no positive catalysts for ZEC. On a macro level, the Fed is expected to continue raising interest rates into early 2026, putting pressure on the entire crypto market. As a privacy coin, ZEC faces ongoing regulatory risks. Large institutions are watching cautiously, and at this stage, no one wants to actively bottom fish.

**My trading logic is clear: short!**

All three data points point in the same direction. Any attempt to push higher (like in the 495-500 range) is just a bull trap. In the short term, I look at 480; if that level breaks, then 460 becomes the next target. I already have short positions above 490, with a stop-loss set at 502, offering a risk-reward ratio of over 3:1.

Oversold conditions may trigger a technical rebound, which is normal, but as long as the downtrend hasn't reversed, don’t think about bottom fishing. Pay attention to the Bollinger lower band support and volume changes—they will give you the most direct signals.

For more trading details, feel free to follow. The market favors those with patience and discipline.

$ZEC