Recently, I've been watching the ETH 1-hour chart, and it's quite interesting.

The price has been repeatedly hovering between 3131 and 3196, seemingly insignificant, but a closer analysis reveals some clues. Moving averages are almost converging, and the Bollinger Bands are tightening, compressing the entire chart tightly. In this situation, there are usually two possibilities: either the market continues to consolidate sideways, consuming time, or it suddenly breaks out with high volume in one direction.

**What to look at from a technical perspective? Focus on resistance and support levels.**

Below, around 3130, the price has been tested multiple times, each time quickly pulled back, indicating that there are buyers accumulating at the bottom. This behavior is less like retail traders and more like large funds accumulating at low levels. Above, around 3196, the price is also being repeatedly challenged, with each rally accompanied by increased volume, suggesting that selling pressure above is gradually being absorbed. Once the price can hold steadily above 3200 with high volume, the short-term trend should be established, at least targeting the previous high near 3300. Conversely, if it falls below 3120, a decisive stop-loss is necessary—such a technical breakdown often indicates that the bears are gaining the upper hand.

**What signals do on-chain data give?**

In the past couple of days, several long-term dormant whale wallets have suddenly moved, transferring a significant amount of ETH to exchanges. But this doesn't necessarily mean a sell-off—by examining the transaction history of these addresses, it appears more like they are positioning for leverage or hedging derivatives. Meanwhile, Ethereum network gas fees have increased, indicating rising on-chain activity, especially in DeFi and NFT sectors. This phenomenon is often a precursor to a market rally.

Layer2's TVL (Total Value Locked) is also gradually rising, and several key ecosystem projects are brewing collaborations, all pointing to increased market participation.

**What is the macro environment like?**

From a policy perspective, the signals from the Federal Reserve have become increasingly dovish, and market expectations for future liquidity are rising. This shift in sentiment often attracts incremental capital. On the Ethereum ecosystem side, Layer2 development remains robust, showing confidence in scalability solutions. Sentiment-wise, the anxiety that once permeated the market is gradually fading, replaced by a rising greed sentiment, but most people are still lagging in recognizing this shift—making it a good opportunity to position early.

**How to trade?**

The current approach is to build positions gradually. Place orders in the 3140 to 3180 range without rushing to buy all at once. The key support level is set at 3120; if it breaks below this, cut losses immediately. Conversely, if it breaks above 3220, consider adding to your position. Don’t wait for the market to fully develop before entering; major players won’t wait for you to react. In a bull market, avoid guessing the top, but always follow the trend.