Nobel Prize winners mainly include BTC in national reserves, Venezuela's cryptocurrency ambitions behind the power transition

Venezuela’s political situation is rapidly changing. With the fall of the Maduro regime, opposition leader María Corina Machado has become a key figure in the power transition, and her latest statement reveals a notable policy signal: BTC will become a critical component of Venezuela’s national reserves. This is not only a political declaration but also reflects a shift in the emerging regime’s attitude toward cryptocurrencies.

Machado in the Power Transition

Who is Machado? She is a leading figure in the Venezuelan opposition alliance, recently recognized with the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. After Maduro was detained by U.S. forces on January 3rd, she quickly became a popular candidate for the transitional government.

According to the latest data from prediction market Kalshi, in the forecast of “Who will actually lead Venezuela by the end of 2026,” Machado’s probability of winning is about 27%, ranking third. Although this number is not the highest, it indicates her significant position in the power change.

Policy Signal for BTC Inclusion in National Reserves

Machado stated that BTC will become a key part of her national reserves, and the significance of this statement goes far beyond the surface. It implies:

• If Machado becomes Venezuela’s leader, the country could become, after El Salvador, another nation to officially recognize BTC as a national reserve asset
• It reflects the emerging regime’s recognition of cryptocurrencies as a hedging tool, especially amid economic uncertainty
• Venezuela has long suffered from international sanctions and economic crises, and BTC may be viewed as a way to bypass traditional financial systems

Uncertainty in Reality

It is important to note that although Machado is a popular candidate, her win probability is only 27%, far below the 32-35% of the current acting president Gonsalez. More complex is the fact that the U.S. government’s support for Machado is unclear. The Trump administration has stated it will temporarily take control of Venezuela before the power transfer, adding variables to the situation.

This means that even if Machado advocates for BTC policies, whether they can be implemented ultimately depends on the specific outcome of the power transition.

Potential Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

From a market perspective, BTC is currently priced at $92,875.17, with a market cap of $1.85 trillion and a market share of 58.82%. If Venezuela truly incorporates BTC into its national reserves, it may not have a significant short-term impact on the global market, but it will be an important political signal, indicating that more countries are reassessing the strategic value of cryptocurrencies.

Summary

Machado’s proposal for BTC reserves reflects the new Venezuelan regime’s recognition of cryptocurrencies, but whether this policy can be realized still depends on her ability to win the power struggle. Currently, her win rate is about 27%, ranking third, with considerable uncertainty. In any case, the discussion of BTC during this power transition has become a focal point, also prompting us to pay attention to the latest developments in Venezuela’s leadership transfer and potential policy changes.