2026-01-05 11:23:49

In 2025, Bitcoin's decline reached 6%, breaking the old rule of "halving year must be bullish" that has held for the past twelve years. Currently, the entire network is still debating whether the four-year cycle is dead, but Wall Street players have long since changed their approach.

In those repeatedly tested price ranges, every seemingly boring sideways consolidation is actually a cautious step by big funds in careful deployment.

Based on the investment logic of top institutions like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity, the core of this round of "capital relay" in 2026 is quietly changing.

**Liquidity cycles are replacing halving cycles**

In the past, halving was watched because miners were the biggest selling pressure; now, the Federal Reserve is watched because institutions are the real buyers. Grayscale's strategic report bluntly states: the four-year cycle of crypto assets is being reshaped by macro liquidity cycles. The physical supply contraction caused by halving is rapidly diminishing in the face of M2 expansion and ETF net inflows.

In other words, the reason there was no crazy bull in 2025 is justified—big funds are actively dismantling the old narrative. They are re-evaluating the entire market with new pricing logic.

This is not a technical issue, but a game rule update in the capital landscape.

BTC-0,28%

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RugDocScientist

· 01-08 11:23

Wall Street guys really changed the game rules. Those still obsessing over the halving cycle are a bit outdated. Basically, institutions are starting to take pricing power, and the Federal Reserve's pressure to sell is much more important than miners'. Consolidation is actually just accumulation; it looks like nothing is happening but they are actually laying out plans. I've seen this routine before in the stock market. I read Grayscale's report, and the judgment that the liquidity cycle replaces the halving cycle is still quite interesting. Is it crazy not to have a bull run this year? Actually, it's quite normal. Big funds are not retail investors; they are dismantling narratives and rebuilding expectations. How will 2026 go? It mainly depends on the Federal Reserve's stance and the flow of ETF funds. This relay race has truly changed hands. No wonder those old cycle theories are becoming less and less useful.

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ShortingEnthusiast

· 01-08 10:01

Basically, retail investors are still watching the halving, while institutions are already playing a different game.

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PaperHandsCriminal

· 01-08 04:56

It's the same old story. I've been listening for three years, and they're still talking about liquidity cycles. I just want to know when it's my turn to make money.

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BridgeTrustFund

· 01-05 11:47

Consolidation is just positioning, it sounds right, but I feel more like a silence before the leek harvest. Wall Street is changing its approach, retail investors are still stubbornly holding onto the halving theory, which is basically an information gap. Does M2 expansion beat the halving cycle? What if the Federal Reserve suddenly tightens? Wouldn't this set of logic need to be overturned again? I believe that institutions are the true buyers, but the problem is, how can we small investors follow and get a piece of the pie? Rather than studying liquidity cycles, it's better to watch closely when institutions start to run away.

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TheShibaWhisperer

· 01-05 11:47

Oh my, the halving cycle is over... So my trading logic over the past few years is all for nothing. Wall Street folks are really quick to react. While retail investors are still debating the halving, they've already set their sights on the Federal Reserve. Liquidity is truly king, and this trend is becoming more and more evident.

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ChainChef

· 01-05 11:47

nah the halving cycle recipe just got overcooked... now we're simmering on fed moves instead lol

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PumpBeforeRug

· 01-05 11:35

Really, the old calendar for the halving cycle should have been discarded long ago. Wall Street has been playing the capital game for a long time.

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TopEscapeArtist

· 01-05 11:31

What are you hyping about the liquidity cycle again... I just want to ask, when institutions are deploying, how am I still buying in at the 60,000 high point? --- It's called "deconstructing the old narrative," but honestly, it just means the old rules no longer work, and we retail investors have to pay tuition again. --- Grayscale strategic report? I look at the loss curve in my account; that chart is more real. --- Sideways consolidation = deployment? To me, it looks more like dumping, everyone. --- Can we beat the Federal Reserve's methods? It's just big funds taking turns cutting in and out. --- MACD golden cross can't fool me anymore. Don't try to use the "capital relay" excuse to coax me into bottom fishing. --- Wait, if that's the case, do I need to adjust my entire trading logic? Never mind, I'll just keep watching the candlestick charts. --- What's the point of a six-point decline? The key is where my stop-loss is. That's the real issue.

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OnChain_Detective

· 01-05 11:26

wait hold up, let me pull the data on these institutional flows real quick... flagged some suspicious patterns in the narrative here ngl. grayscale report says one thing but wallet clustering shows different story entirely. not financial advice but the "rule change" angle feels like typical market manipulation signature to me. always DYOR folks.

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AirdropJunkie

· 01-05 11:24

Wait, is the halving cycle dead? So all my research these years was in vain? The saying that sideways consolidation is just a layout is getting tired; anyway, ordinary people can't see through it. The Federal Reserve is the real boss, there's no doubt about that. The institutions have long since changed the rules.

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