Short-Term Perspective: What to Expect from the IBEX 35 in the Coming Weeks?

The IBEX 35 Breaks Historic Resistance Levels

The Spanish benchmark has experienced extraordinary behavior over the past month, surpassing a barrier that seemed insurmountable: 17,000 points. This milestone is not merely a number but a confirmation that the short-term stock market trend remains clearly bullish. With a close near 16,850 points after multiple attempts to reach 17,000, the market demonstrates strength that goes beyond what analysts expected just weeks ago.

What’s interesting is that this advance has not been an isolated phenomenon. The IBEX 35 has consolidated this rally through key sectors that act as pillars: financials and cyclicals have been the main protagonists of this climb. Risk appetite remains alive among investors, who prefer to hold long positions even as they approach relevant technical highs.

Drivers Fueling the Short-Term Stock Market Trend

Financial Sector: The Heart of the Rally

Spanish banking continues to be the compass guiding the IBEX 35. Major entities like Santander and BBVA have maintained their prominence, capturing capital flows and investor confidence. This sector’s strength has been supported by still favorable interest margins, although ECB cut expectations generate some caution about the sustainability of these gains.

Industrial Stocks in Recovery

Ferrovial, Sacyr, and other industrial companies have shown significant advances. The news that Ferrovial will join the Nasdaq-100 has acted as an important catalyst, reinforcing the attractiveness of the Spanish market among international investors.

Favorable Macroeconomic Context

Stability in ECB rates, along with European data readings that are not alarming, has provided reassurance to market participants. This regulatory calm has been fundamental for maintaining high risk appetite levels.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

The short-term stock market trend is currently defined by three critical technical levels:

Main Resistance: 17,000 – 17,200 points. This is the level the index has been chasing, and a sustained breakout could pave the way toward 17,300 points.

First Support: 16,600 – 16,700 points. A fall below this zone would signal weakening in the short term.

Bullish Extension: 17,300 points appears as the potential target if bullish momentum persists.

Immediate Outlook: Consolidation or Continuation?

Looking into the next month, the short-term stock market trend is likely to oscillate within a defined range. Absent surprising macroeconomic events, the IBEX 35 should find balance between its technical supports and resistances.

Analysts expect a moderate consolidation phase, where the index consolidates the gains achieved without an accelerated rally. However, persistent risk appetite suggests that the lows would be well-defined, avoiding sharp declines in the short term.

Risk Factors to Consider

Global macroeconomic uncertainty has not disappeared. There is a 45% probability of a global recession in 2025, which could trigger episodes of volatility. The IBEX 35, by its nature more sensitive to external shocks, would not be exempt from these turbulences.

Additionally, the global tariff scale and industrial slowdown in certain European regions pose risks that could reverse the current short-term optimism.

Historical Performance of the IBEX 35: Context

To understand the significance of the current rally, it’s enough to review historical performance:

• 2024: +37% (one of the best years of the decade)
• 2023: +4.91%
• 2022: -22.76%
• 2021: -5.56%

In 2024, the IBEX 35 has positioned itself among the most profitable European indices, significantly outperforming the DAX and CAC 40. This robust performance reflects confidence in the Spanish economy and the fundamentals of its leading companies.

Volatility: A Structural Characteristic of the Index

The IBEX 35 is naturally more volatile than other European indices due to its concentration in cyclical sectors like banking and energy. This volatility presents both risks and opportunities. During crises, declines tend to be sharper; in booms, recoveries are equally rapid.

Medium-Term Structural Outlook

While the focus remains on the short-term trend, it is relevant to consider that the composition of the IBEX 35 is diversifying. Inditex, with 15.48% of the index weight, continues to be the pillar, although Iberdrola (13.83%) and Banco Santander (12.13%) also hold strategic positions.

The energy sector, particularly renewables, presents growing opportunities due to demand for data infrastructure and artificial intelligence. Companies like Endesa and Iberdrola could benefit from this secular trend, providing a counterbalance to margin compression in banking.

Conclusion

The short-term trend of the IBEX 35 remains constructive. With defined technical levels, key sectors showing strength, and a still favorable macroeconomic environment, the preferred direction is upward, although consolidations are expected. Investors should monitor support and resistance levels closely, as well as stay alert to changes in global sentiment that could quickly reverse the current optimism.