A weather prediction bot has posted impressive trading results on a chain-based prediction market, but its winning logic isn't weather forecasting itself—it's precise probability arbitrage.

Someone dug up this account's trading history, and the data is quite remarkable. In the single largest profit case, it leveraged a cost of $0.81 to generate a return of $39.89, with returns skyrocketing to 4900%. As of now, the account's total profit has reached $1,139. At first glance, it's easy to attribute this to luck, but upon deeper analysis of its trading structure, the underlying mechanism becomes apparent.

The core of this strategy doesn't lie in weather prediction accuracy, but rather in the sensitivity to market sentiment and pricing discrepancies. Through structured position design, it repeatedly captures misprice opportunities in on-chain derivatives markets, leveraging probability advantages to generate steady profits. This trading model has become a new paradigm for on-chain quantitative trading—not pursuing single massive hits, but rather accumulating returns through continuous micro-arbitrage.