Bitcoin's rise is driven by internal market factors, with limited impact from geopolitical events.

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin ignores crisis in Venezuela and appreciates driven by ETFs and regulation, says expert Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/bitcoin-ignora-crise-na-venezuela-e-valoriza-impulsionado-por-etfs-e-regulacao-diz-especialista/ Bitcoin’s rise in 2026 is linked to internal market factors such as regulatory agenda and inflow of crypto funds, rather than U.S. military actions against Venezuela (which led to the arrest of Nicolás Maduro).

Mercado Bitcoin research director Rony Szuster points out that the first thing to note is that this military action occurred on Saturday(3rd) midnight, and Bitcoin’s rally was only confirmed by Monday(5th). In a 24/7 open market, this time gap indicates that other price-driving factors are at play.

At the time of writing, BTC has increased by 7% this week, trading around $94,000.

Legal and ETF impacts

“Currently, the decisive factor influencing Bitcoin’s price seems to be the Market Clarity Act, a bill expected to be voted on in the U.S. Senate between January and February. This regulatory framework is crucial for the industry,” Szuster states.

The bill will establish overall rules for the operation of the U.S. digital asset market, create clear definitions for assets, set industry standards, and define the roles of regulatory agencies such as the SEC and CFTC.

Additionally, analysts emphasize that large inflows into ETFs are another factor: U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows on Monday(5th) reached $697.2 million, the best performance since early October.

Another noteworthy point is a new investment by a fund that purchased $116 million worth of Bitcoin in early 2026.

“Current prices are more influenced by these micro fundamentals and macroeconomic data(such as this week’s employment report) rather than purely geopolitical factors,” the expert notes.

Market has already priced in the event

Szuster explains that although geopolitical events often cause market volatility, the Venezuela event has limited impact on Bitcoin because it was an isolated operation, widely anticipated by investors.

According to analysts, the Trump administration has been hinting for months at taking action against Maduro’s government, through redeploying military assets in the region, which means that the market had already priced in this event.

Furthermore, analysts point out that no prolonged military escalation scenarios that could lead to large-scale risk asset flight(such as ground invasions or sustained occupation) have emerged. “If a long-term occupation occurs, the market will seek traditionally safer assets like U.S. Treasuries,” he says.

Another point is the potential indirect impact of regime change in Venezuela, such as the possible resumption of oil production and its effects on global inflation, which remains uncertain and depends on a series of political and economic variables.

“Since this was an isolated operation, the market has already priced it in, believing there will be no significant follow-up developments, despite the Trump administration mentioning the possibility of new attacks, even in Colombia. While these events are negative, their direct impact on the crypto market is limited.”