Ethereum breaks through the 21-day moving average, signaling a technical rebound... next target $3,900

Source: TokenPost Original Title: Ethereum Breaks 21-Day Moving Average Signal Technical Rebound… Next Target is $3,900 Original Link: Ethereum breaks through the 21-day moving average, ETF fund inflows continue to resonate with low exchange holdings, forming a continuous technical upward trend.

Ethereum(ETH) currently trades around $3,200(approximately 4.64 million KRW), with a slight decline in the past 24 hours, but the weekly baseline has increased by about 8%. Trading volume exceeds $28 billion(approximately 40.6 trillion KRW), with active market trading.

Breakthrough of the 21-Day Moving Average… Technical Reversal Signal

Analysts say that ETH has turned the 21-day moving average in the ETH/BTC chart into a support line after breaking through it. This may mark the beginning of a substantial upward trend for the first time since summer. ETH has recovered to the 0.035 BTC level, completing a long-term consolidation and breaking through the upper boundary of the box.

The Relative Strength Index(RSI) is also gradually rising but has not yet entered the overbought zone, indicating room for further growth. Especially in the 0.03~0.0325 BTC range, ETH has repeatedly bounced back successfully, which has been a major support level since the end of 2025. Analysts point out that ETH is in a highly compressed state relative to Bitcoin, and significant volatility is expected.

Ethereum Breaks Downward Channel, Structural Changes Begin to Emerge

On the USD(USDT) benchmark chart, ETH has broken through the downward trend channel. Analysts emphasize that a rebound above $3,200 turns the previous downward resistance line into support. Therefore, from a medium- to long-term technical perspective, the possibility of trend reversal is increasing.

Although ETH has recorded six consecutive bullish days recently, with the first bearish candle appearing, analysts believe this is an overbought correction process. Experts note that this correction is inevitable and helps digest later buy-in positions. If ETH can maintain above $3,200, the upward trend can continue.

ETF Fund Inflows and Low Exchange Holdings

According to on-chain data, the amount of Ethereum held on exchanges has fallen below 16.5 million coins, reaching the lowest level in years. This indicates that potential selling pressure is relatively low. Meanwhile, recent net inflows into ETH spot ETFs have turned positive. Institutional funds are flowing back in, providing additional momentum for the current trend.

From the overall market pattern, ETH also has the potential to form a double bottom pattern. Technical analysts point out that although ETH has not yet fully shown signs of an upward reversal, once resistance is broken, the next target will be $3,900, corresponding to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level.

Caution is the Best Approach… Key is to Maintain the Trend

Ethereum shows positive signals at multiple technical levels, but to sustain the upward momentum, it must maintain prices above $3,200 with increasing trading volume. ETF inflows and low exchange balances support the fundamentals, but short-term technical adjustments cannot be ruled out.