The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has new developments! The probability of a rate cut in January has dropped sharply from 17.7% to 11.1%, a significant change. The December non-farm payroll data released last night shows that the US labor market is recovering moderately. The 41,000 new jobs added are slightly below expectations, but compared to the employment contraction in November (-29,000), the rebound is obvious.

The market now consensus: employment is not collapsing, and inflation has not yet reached 2%. The Fed has no reason to rush to cut rates in January. In my opinion, January is basically a "pause." The suspense now shifts to March, with about a 45% chance of a rate cut then. If next night's non-farm payroll data remains strong, the expectation of a rate cut in March may also be shaken, and the market will face a real stress test.

For our crypto circle, Federal Reserve policies are a key indicator. Changes in rate cut expectations will directly affect market capital flows and investor sentiment. Everyone should closely monitor subsequent developments and prepare in advance. Analysis is not easy, so please give a free follow, bookmark, like, and comment. Let's ride the waves of the crypto tide together!