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🟠 Will Bitcoin Crash or Rally? Top 3 Events to Watch This Week
Bitcoin witnessed a surprise bounce to almost $95K and pared the gains to fall back below $90K this week. Bitcoin ETFs flows and MSCI’s decision on MSTR also failed to provide constructive cues on market direction amid geopolitical tensions and mixed jobs data. Traders to closely watch these 3 events that could signal whether Bitcoin to crash or rally ahead.
🔸 Bitcoin to Crash or Rally to Depend on US CPI Inflation Data
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release December’s CPI inflation data on January 13, the most crucial data anticipated by global investors following the end of the US government shutdown.
The previous US CPI data showed inflation cooled to 2.7%, which marked the biggest drop in US inflation since March 2025. Core CPI inflation also fell to 2.6%, below expectations of 3.0%.
As Bitcoin reacts sharply to inflation, a further drop in inflation will trigger a rally towards $95K again. It will also boost 25 bps Fed rate cut odds in January, which currently sit around 14%.
However, hotter-than-expected CPI data could push price towards the CME gap near $88K. The crypto market crash risks will rise amid tighter liquidity and continued redemptions from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded almost $1.20 billion in net outflows in the past few days. This indicated a cooling risk appetite as investors continued profit booking in BTC.
🔸 US PPI Inflation Data
The Labor Department will release October and November’s PPI data together on January 14. It will show how the inflation wavered during the government shutdown, which raised financial stress in the US banking sector.
The Federal Reserve acted and decided to end the quantitative tightening (QT) in December. The Fed injected billions of dollars to raise liquidity in the financial industry.
Producer prices in the United States came in at 2.7%, according to a delayed report by the BLS. However, the monthly PPI inflation data came in higher at 0.3%.
#BTC | #Bitcoin
{spot}(BTCUSDT)