2026-01-10 19:38:16

Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle: Still Relevant Today?

Over the past decade, Bitcoin's price movements have followed a predictable pattern—the four-year cycle tied to block rewards halving. The mechanism is straightforward: as newly minted Bitcoin supply shrinks every four years, scarcity intensifies, historically triggering bull runs.

But here's the question keeping traders awake: does this cycle still hold when spot ETFs and institutional capital now dominate market structure? The dynamics have shifted dramatically. Institutional players don't follow the same FOMO-driven behavior as retail traders. They deploy capital based on macro conditions, regulatory shifts, and portfolio allocation strategies.

Our analysis digs into whether traditional halving-driven cycles can coexist with modern market infrastructure. We break down the data, examine past cycles, and explore how institutional flows are reshaping Bitcoin's multi-year rhythm. The verdict? It's more nuanced than ever.

BTC0,07%

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RektButAlive

· 12h ago

Oh dear, once institutions enter the market, everything completely changes. Can the four-year cycle story still be told? Institutions simply don't go crazy with retail investors; it's too disappointing. This round is really not that simple. After the ETF disruption, everything has become unrecognizable. The halving cycle has long been outdated; now it's all about macro and policy decisions. What nonsense is the supply scarcity? Institutional liquidity is the real boss. Is human joking? After the ETF listing, are we still expecting a four-year cycle? Retail investors are just being cut like leeks; the cycle was broken long ago by institutions. The supply-side logic has completely collapsed; now it's all about how to allocate risk assets. Every time, they say we need to watch the cycle, but in the end, it's still tightly controlled by policies.

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BlockchainFries

· 12h ago

Institutional entry has really damaged Bitcoin's narrative; now it's not just about supply scarcity to drive prices up.

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GasBandit

· 12h ago

The halving cycle is indeed a bit outdated now; after institutional involvement, the gameplay has completely changed. Institutions focus on macro and regulation, while retail investors look at supply, and these two logics don't match at all. After the ETF listing, Bitcoin is no longer as "pure" as before, it has been mixed with too many financial products. To put it simply, the old cycle theory is now just a reference; what really matters is where the money flows. Can we still trust the four-year cycle... I think it's difficult now, with too many variables.

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NFTPessimist