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The US crypto regulation enters a critical moment. On January 15, Congress will launch a "dual-track" effort—both the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee will simultaneously push forward two important agendas, which could fundamentally change the regulatory landscape for crypto assets.

Let's start with the main event in the morning. The core issue up for a vote in the Senate Banking Committee revolves around the legal status of spot ETFs and stablecoins. If passed, spot ETFs for BTC and ETH, as well as stablecoins, are expected to receive a "green light." Industry insiders reveal that institutional funds on Wall Street are already poised and ready.

In the afternoon, the Agriculture Committee will address some regulatory provisions related to the CFTC, which may face delays in voting. Both sides are still "battling" over several issues—who should receive the profits generated by stablecoins, whether DeFi platforms need to bear anti-money laundering responsibilities, and whether the final vote in the Agriculture Committee will be postponed until the end of the month. These details may seem technical but directly impact the future market direction.

From a probability perspective, industry estimates suggest about a 70% chance of passing the Senate Banking Committee, and only a 35% chance of concurrent approval by the Agriculture Committee. However, the expectation for actual implementation before 2026 remains relatively conservative, with about 40% of participants holding an optimistic outlook.

The core logic is quite clear: tomorrow is likely to "win the first half," and approval in the Senate Banking Committee alone could trigger a major market sentiment shift. Before around 10 PM Beijing time, three key actions should be watched—whether the final draft text changes, how the "profit clause" is defined, and whether there are signs of regulatory easing for DeFi.

Many participants react with: "Is this really going to be compliant now?" "Spot prices are about to surge," "Slow bull legislation is more stable than rapid rises." Regardless of the final outcome, 2026 has already been marked by the industry as a pivotal year for crypto legislation. The bullets are still flying, but the direction is becoming increasingly clear.

(Note: Please conduct your own research before investing. This article only summarizes market dynamics and does not constitute any investment advice.)