Many people are still viewing Bitcoin through an outdated framework—the four-year halving cycle "lazy calendar." But have you ever wondered when this logic will stop working?

The answer is now.

**Why did the old cycle become invalid?**

Looking back at the 2012, 2016, and 2020 cycles, their increasing intensity was fundamentally due to stacking several factors: sharp supply reduction, clear narrative, concentrated positions—simple and straightforward, easy for retail investors to understand. But this clear "storyline" also planted the seeds of trouble, creating a single trading mindset.

Now, a new player has entered—the institutions. Their demand isn't to listen to stories but to watch costs.

**Funding costs are the real logic for 2026**

You need to understand what the Federal Reserve is doing. The rate cut window at the end of 2025 has just opened, and Fed Governor Milani has openly stated that in 2026, there will be an aggressive rate cut of 150 basis points. This is no small matter.

When the global financing environment loosens, the basis for asset pricing changes. Liquidity is abundant, and high-volatility assets naturally become sought after. But the key is—this time, the structure of buyers has changed. No longer retail investors following the trend, but institutions systematically reallocating assets. The traditional "event" of halving now looks like an old calendar.

**Spot ETF opens a new demand channel**

The emergence of the US spot Bitcoin ETF may seem just to allow more people to trade cryptocurrencies, but in reality, it changes the entire ecosystem's operating rules.

Capital flows are no longer tied to the halving date but focus on: when will the asset portfolio be rebalanced, how much risk budget do institutions have left, whether Bitcoin will fall along with other assets during declines, how to plan taxes at year-end... these details determine the rhythm of inflows and outflows.

But what is the most critical move? Channel expansion.

In January 2026, US banks announced they would expand the authority of financial advisors to recommend ETP products. It sounds ordinary, but this means Bitcoin's distribution chain directly extends into the core client base of traditional finance. This "top-down mechanical expansion" has far more energy than any single-day emotional fluctuation.

**The new rules of the game**

In other words, the 2026 Bitcoin trend is no longer based on simple logic like "halving is coming, let's stock up." Instead, it’s a more complex new situation woven from institutional capital flows, macro policies, institutional innovations, and other factors.

The old script has indeed become invalid. But the opportunities on this new stage are even greater—so long as you understand who the real driving force is now.