Spot gold hits a new all-time high again, with quotes fluctuating around $4607. Short-term upward momentum still exists, but concerns about rebalancing the commodity index are gradually emerging.

From a technical perspective, gold is in a healthy bullish pattern—short-term moving averages are aligned upward, with $4447 firmly supporting the bottom. As long as this level holds, the upward trend will not reverse. Looking upward, $4770 is a key level for entering overbought territory; a breakout above this level would require caution against a rapid correction. Currently, market positions are not at extreme levels, indicating that the rally is not purely driven by speculation and still has some fundamental support.

On the macro front, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China tensions continue to provide safe-haven demand, which underpins gold prices. However, risks lie in the upcoming rebalancing of the commodity index between January 8-14, which market estimates suggest could generate about $5 billion in gold selling pressure. Also, don’t forget tonight’s US retail sales data—if the data exceeds expectations, a stronger dollar could directly suppress gold prices; conversely, weaker data would be positive for gold.

From a trading perspective, recent opportunities mainly focus on shorting in the $4600-$4630 range, with yesterday’s dip near $4570 providing many short-term shorting opportunities. Today, continue to focus on gold’s performance around $4634. For medium- to long-term investors, it’s advisable to use pullbacks to gradually build positions, allocating about 5%-10% of assets and buying in stages rather than all at once for better risk management.

(For reference only, markets carry risks. Invest cautiously.)