Qianhai Open Source Fund Fund Manager Cui Chenlong: Insisting on Industrial Transition and Leading Value Resonance

Over the past year, the global technological revolution and industrial transformation have advanced in depth, with China making exciting breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, green energy, and other fields.

Main Tech Line: AI Leading Industry Leap

By 2025, the market has written a structurally bullish chapter centered on technology, with artificial intelligence, domestic computing power, robotics, and other sectors becoming growth engines. In 2026, this trend will deepen further.

The rise of domestic computing power, with leading local companies continuously breaking through technical bottlenecks, has accelerated the penetration of domestic chips in cloud training and inference scenarios. As demand for cloud computing power from vendors like ByteDance surges, the share of domestic computing chips is expected to shift from “substitution” to “dominance.”

AI on device and the smart connectivity of all things—smartphones, PCs, and other traditional terminals—are being revalued in terms of heat dissipation and batteries due to AI upgrades; AI glasses and AR devices open up new imaginative spaces— the former relying on domestically replaced SoC chips, and the latter centered on optical modules, which may develop into a 200 billion yuan market in the long term.

In internet and entertainment innovation, AI empowers cloud services, gaming, and film industries, with large models boosting content production efficiency. Domestic cloud service providers, leveraging cost advantages, are attracting back demand for overseas expansion; segments like drama series and PC games are entering a burst period, with the market size possibly surpassing 10 billion yuan in 2026.

China’s high-end manufacturing is shifting from “catch-up” to “leading,” with the supply chain of domestically produced large aircraft C919 continuing to break through; aerospace engines and gas turbines have achieved breakthroughs from zero to one; cutting-edge equipment like the 055 destroyer and DF-17 missile showcase military strength.

Leading Companies: Structural Opportunities Amid Anti-Overcompetition

In the past two years, small and medium-cap stocks and tech growth stocks led the rally, but the valuation advantages and fundamental resilience of leading companies have been underestimated. In 2026, policies against overcompetition and economic recovery will drive valuation reappraisal.

First, fiscal efforts (long-term special bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan, special bonds of 6.49 trillion yuan) and policies against overcompetition (restricting low-price competition, promoting capacity clearing) will optimize industry structure, with cyclical sectors like photovoltaics, pig farming, and chemicals likely to see bottoming out and reversal.

Second, high-end manufacturing continues to break through. In recent years, China’s manufacturing industry has been narrowing the gap with top global standards, with accelerated domestic substitution in aerospace engines, semiconductor equipment, and military gear. Breakthroughs in domestic lithography machines, the arrival of satellite networking intensives, and the start of mass production of humanoid robots mark China’s intelligent manufacturing entering the core of the global value chain.

Global Perspective: Seizing Opportunities in the Energy Revolution and Emerging Markets

Currently, energy storage and power equipment are becoming cross-regional booming sectors. Domestic independent energy storage business models are being streamlined, with installed capacity expected to grow 56% year-over-year in 2025; in the U.S., driven by surging electricity demand from AI data centers (potentially accounting for 13% of the national total by 2030) and the retirement of coal plants, energy storage demand is rigidly rising. The photovoltaic industry, after the “overcompetition” phase, is approaching a gross margin inflection point, with new applications like direct green power connection and photovoltaic desertification control, leading core companies to fully turn profitable by 2026.

Moreover, against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring and regional capacity clearing, some traditional manufacturing and service industries are experiencing structural turning points. Take the express delivery industry as an example: by 2025, nationwide price wars will substantially end, with leading companies reaching rational pricing consensus, and revenues increasing quarter-over-quarter for multiple consecutive periods. Coupled with automation in sorting and trunk transportation efficiency improvements, profits will significantly improve, shifting the industry from “scale first” to “quality first.”

The chemical sector shows more pronounced global linkage: Europe has shut down over 11 million tons of high-energy-consuming basic chemical capacity between 2023 and 2024, including key intermediates like ammonia, methanol, and PVC. Meanwhile, China’s chemical industry has undergone nearly three years of deep destocking, with inventory levels of major products falling to near five-year lows. Coupled with ongoing demand expansion in downstream new energy materials (such as electrolyte solvents, PVDF) and semiconductor chemicals, the industry’s overall valuation is at a historic low, with repair momentum building.

(Source: Securities Market Weekly)