Returning to the capital market perspective: Can controllable nuclear fusion replicate the miracle of commercial spaceflight?

After artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, and commercial spaceflight, the capital markets are re-allocating attention toward “strategic-level technological directions,” with controlled nuclear fusion pushed to the forefront of discussion.

Policy emphasis, industry fund participation, major projects completing large-scale financing rounds, and strong performance in secondary market stocks—all these signals interact to drive the temperature of this track upward continuously since the second half of last year.

This warming trend bears some similarity to commercial spaceflight—both involve high technological barriers, heavy asset investments, long validation cycles, and strong strategic attributes. Under the resonance of policy signals and concentrated capital inflows, they have both followed a steep curve of capital enthusiasm.

So, can controlled nuclear fusion replicate the “commercial spaceflight” miracle and usher in an era of technological breakthroughs and capital aggregation?

Returning to the Capital Market’s Focus

In fact, the capital market is not unfamiliar with controlled nuclear fusion. The last major wave of capital chasing this concept occurred in March 2023. At that time, Ranga Dias, a physicist at the University of Rochester, announced the achievement of room-temperature superconductivity under near-environmental pressure, attracting global attention. The A-share market also responded enthusiastically, with multiple superconductivity-related stocks, including Baili Electric, experiencing collective surges.

Although this result was later questioned by academia and ultimately retracted, and did not become a true technological breakthrough, that wave already sent a clear signal: capital is highly sensitive to key technological nodes that could shorten commercialization pathways.

Because of this, in the absence of substantial technological milestones, the fusion track entered a period of capital observation. The turning point came in the second half of 2025, when controlled nuclear fusion began to re-enter the capital spotlight with a clearer strategic positioning.

In the “14th Five-Year Plan” released in October 2025, fusion was listed for the first time as part of the “core list of future industries,” alongside hydrogen energy, explicitly identified as a new engine for economic growth. Policy also explicitly called for exploring multiple technical routes, typical application scenarios, and feasible commercial models, providing a clearer policy framework for the track.

Against this backdrop, the primary market was the first to heat up.

Several insiders involved in fusion projects told “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” that under the continued strengthening of policies, the financing enthusiasm for the fusion track in the primary market has significantly increased. “Recently, many institutions have proactively approached projects, and many investors mentioned that this is a direction worth focusing on in 2026.”

One project insider admitted that although the last round of financing was recently completed and the company still has sufficient funds on hand, as engineering milestones progress, future capital expenditure pressures will be substantial. Therefore, they hope to continue pushing for a new round of financing during this hot window.

This window of opportunity has also attracted new entrants. Several long-term observers of the fusion track told “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” that since the second half of last year, there has been a clear increase in new projects, even including speculative projects aimed at venture capital.

Another industry insider revealed to the same publication that there has even been a “fission phenomenon” within the track. “Market expectations are heating up, and different technical and engineering routes are advancing in parallel. Many teams have spun off to start independent ventures, and some companies have already split into three or four new startups.”

However, current capital is already showing a trend of gathering around leading projects. The aforementioned investor said, “Competition among institutions for top projects has intensified, with some even competing for quotas.”

This has led to rising project valuations.

“We previously invested in a project whose valuation has increased significantly, with several consecutive rounds showing notable growth,” the insider said. “But they also acknowledged that this continuous valuation increase is not based on breakthrough technological advances but rather on capital concentration toward projects with clearer pathways and stronger teams.” In their view, compared to the early-stage mobile internet that could accommodate many startups, fusion is more like a “track where a few players carry large amounts of capital.”

Data also supports these perceptions. According to Cailian News Agency’s Venture Capital Data, from 2025 to now, there have been 13 financing events in the domestic controlled fusion field involving 12 projects. The leading effect is evident: China Fusion Energy Co., backed by China National Nuclear Corporation, has attracted over 10 billion yuan from various sources; projects like Xinghuan Juheng, Nova Fusion, and CAS Qingneng have each raised over 500 million yuan, with individual project financing amounts continuously breaking records.

Active investors are also increasing. State-owned enterprises such as PetroChina, Shanghai Future Industry Fund, and China General Nuclear Power Corporation have made concentrated investments in the past year. Market-oriented institutions have shifted from scattered investments to systematic focus on this track, with Sequoia China already involved in five projects including Xinghuan Juheng and Xingneng Xuanguang; Dymon Asia and MingShi Capital have invested in four projects such as Energy Singularity and Dongsheng Fusion. Other market players like Junlian Capital and Mingshi Capital are also increasing their investments in this field.

In the secondary market, a fusion rally emerged at the beginning of 2026. Between January 5 and 8 this year, the controlled fusion sector rose by a total of 8.31%, with net main force inflows reaching 5.088 billion yuan on January 7, indicating clear capital concentration.

The Next Commercial Spaceflight?

In August last year, Xiang Jiang, Chairman of Hanhai Juneng, compared controlled fusion startups to commercial spaceflight: both have high funding and technical barriers, and most specialized talent is concentrated within the system, making early-stage startup efforts very difficult.

From the perspective of development logic, technical features, and industrial structure, controlled fusion and commercial spaceflight share several commonalities, including high R&D intensity, heavy asset investments, long validation cycles, a pattern of a few leading companies bearing large capital loads, and a grand vision of advancing human civilization. Whether it’s the reusability validation of rockets or the steady-state operation of fusion devices, fundamentally both are “engineering capability-intensive” tracks: breakthroughs are not linear but depend on long-term accumulation and phased jumps.

After more than a decade of exploration and validation, commercial spaceflight reached a dual inflection point at the end of 2025—technological breakthroughs and commercial realization. Whether controlled fusion, with similar structural characteristics, can achieve a similar leap in the coming years has become a focus of attention for both capital markets and industry players.

The aforementioned investment insiders analyzed for “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” that the recent explosion of commercial spaceflight mainly stems from clear policy support, genuine launch demands, and exit channels for capital. In contrast, fusion has not yet achieved true commercial power generation; engineering validation remains a long-term process. The current enthusiasm is more driven by policy guidance and strategic positioning. In their view, whether controlled fusion can follow a similar explosive growth curve as commercial spaceflight still depends on whether real demand and key technological milestones can be continuously achieved in the next few years.

Mingshi Capital also expressed a cautious outlook. They told “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” that, at present, the path to true commercialization of fusion still involves a long timeline. As a highly systematic and complex engineering endeavor, it still requires breakthroughs in multiple key technologies and engineering challenges, and may face fundamental physical limitations over the longer term.

“Overall, the industry generally believes that commercial fusion power generation will take more than ten years to realize. In the most optimistic scenario, some technological and engineering milestones could be achieved within the next five years, but the overall pace of industry iteration remains slow, and large-scale commercial application still requires ongoing accumulation.”

It is also worth noting that the “seller of shovels” logic is emerging in the fusion field—current capital bets are not only on core device companies but are extending to upstream materials, superconductors, and cryogenic industry chains.

However, an anonymous investor told “Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily” that upstream supply chain advantages are relatively obvious. Compared to downstream fusion device companies, some upstream segments could theoretically generate revenue earlier. But this logic is not as optimistic as the market imagines.

“The downstream device companies are still in early construction stages, and only a limited number of companies have strong paying ability. The commercialization progress of upstream companies still heavily depends on the funding capacity and continued investment willingness of downstream clients,” the insider explained. “The stability of upstream revenue fundamentally depends on the construction pace of downstream projects and the overall industry development. Judging from an investment perspective, the key is whether their segment has sufficient scarcity. Companies that have already developed scarce capabilities and strong upstream barriers are actually valued relatively high.”

Perhaps, rather than simply viewing fusion as “the next commercial spaceflight,” it is better to understand it as a strategic technological direction transitioning from a national scientific research system to an industrial capital system.

The explosion of commercial spaceflight occurred at the intersection of mature technological capabilities, real demand realization, and capital market reform. Currently, fusion is more in the “capacity accumulation” stage; policies and capital have begun early deployment, but engineering validation and industrialization still require time. Capital can price expectations in advance, but the true industry inflection point ultimately depends on whether technological milestones can be achieved.