Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 24, 2026

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Market Overview

Concerns over AI intensify, trade war risks rekindle, with the three major US stock indices falling at least about 1%, led by declines in financial and software stocks.

Anthropic’s product threatens programming languages, IBM drops 13%, its largest decline in 25 years. Financial sector falls over 3%, leading the S&P; American Express drops over 7%, asset management firms tumble, KKR falls nearly 9%, and Blue Owl, targeted by aggressive hedge funds over its credit fund, drops over 3%. Retail stocks sensitive to tariffs all decline, with Wayfair down nearly 10%. Cybersecurity stocks continue to plunge after Anthropic’s new tools threaten last Friday, with CrowdStrike down nearly 10%.

Pan-European and UK indices fall from record highs. Trials show its drug’s weight loss effects are less effective than Eli Lilly’s, Novartis drops over 16%.

US Treasury rebounds, with the 10-year yield approaching a three-month low. After the Supreme Court overturned Trump’s tariffs, the dollar fell from four-week highs over two days. Offshore RMB briefly breaks 6.89 during trading, approaching a three-year high.

Bitcoin briefly falls below $64,000 to a more than two-week low, down over 5% from the daily high. Gold hits a new high for the month during trading, with futures rising over 3% at one point. Silver futures also surged nearly 8%. Crude oil turns up over 1% to a six-month high during trading but later declines, with Brent crude ending the streak of three consecutive gains.

During Asian trading hours, Hang Seng Tech rises over 3%, Meituan up over 5%, while “big model duo” Zhipu and MINIMAX see significant pullbacks.

Top News

China

Ministry of Commerce: Urges the US to cancel unilateral tariffs imposed on trade partners.

The “Dark Side of the Moon” becomes the fastest domestic unicorn, with nearly 20 days’ revenue surpassing last year’s total.

Overseas

US Customs: Will cease collecting tariffs deemed illegal by the Supreme Court starting February 24. US Democratic Party will block any attempts to extend tariffs, pushing for mandatory refunds. European Parliament suspends approval of US-European trade agreements. The UK may become the biggest victim of Trump’s new tariffs.

Federal Reserve Board member Waller: CEOs say AI will cause mass layoffs; March rate decision depends on February labor data.

Trump reportedly considers a “small strike” followed by a “big strike” on Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister: A “better deal” than the 2015 JCPOA may be achievable.

From a “June 2028 research report”: When AI exceeds expectations, the economy collapses. The CitriniResearch memo invents an “AI prosperity crisis”: in 2028, despite productivity surpassing expectations, a “white-collar employment apocalypse” causes “economic plague.” Corporate profits and computing power expand, but household incomes collapse, stifling consumption and creating “ghost GDP.” As SaaS, intermediaries, and financial payment models collapse due to “disappearance of friction,” risks propagate from private credit to life insurance and mortgage markets, dragging the global economy into a systemic re-pricing abyss.

Many US stock sectors plunge mid-session after a fictional AI report triggers a sell-off. The CitriniResearch scenario of 2028 causing white-collar unemployment, consumption shrinkage, and economic contraction sparks market panic. Stocks like DoorDash, American Express, KKR, Blackstone tumble, with payment and software sectors under pressure. Some market analysts believe current reactions may have overestimated AI risks.

Anthropic claims it can modify Cobol systems, causing IBM to plunge 13%, its largest drop in 25 years; Claude Code Security hits cybersecurity stocks again. Anthropic announces its Claude Code tool can accelerate Cobol system modernization, raising concerns about IBM’s mainframe business. IBM’s stock drops 13% Monday, its biggest single-day decline in over 25 years, with a 27% drop in February, possibly marking its worst monthly performance in decades.

Integrating into next-gen PC ecosystems, Nvidia launches laptop chips, returning to the consumer PC market. The new chips aim to make PCs thinner and longer-lasting, enabling Windows-based hardware to directly compete with Apple’s latest MacBooks. This strategic move is not focused on short-term profits. Analysts note Nvidia aims to stay connected with consumers in an era where all devices will feature AI.

Report: ASML reveals EUV light source breakthrough, with chip output potentially increasing by 50% by 2030. Media reports that ASML researchers have found a way to significantly boost the power of their key chip manufacturing light sources, enabling a 50% increase in chip production by 2030. ASML’s EUV light source chief engineer Michael Purvis states: “This is not a gimmick or a short-term demonstration; it’s a system capable of sustained 1000-watt output under real customer conditions.”

White House event a year later remains largely uninitiated; OpenAI’s $500 billion “Stargate” project stalls. Insiders say the joint venture formed by OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank has yet to staff or develop any data centers. Weeks after announcement, disagreements over leadership, responsibilities, and collaboration structure have delayed the project’s progress.

Market Close Summary

US and European stocks: S&P 500 down 1.04% at 6837.75; Dow down 1.66% at 48804.06; Nasdaq down 1.13% at 22627.273. Europe’s STOXX 600 declines 0.45% to 627.70.

A-shares: Market closed.

Bond Market: US 10-year Treasury yield down 5.36 basis points at 4.029%; 2-year yield down 4 basis points at 3.438%.

Commodities: Spot gold up 2.38% at $5229.70/oz; spot silver up 3.99% at $88.0245/oz. WTI April crude futures down $0.27, or 0.38%, at $66.31/barrel.

Detailed News

Global Highlights

China

Ministry of Commerce: Urges the US to cancel unilateral tariffs on trade partners. The MOFCOM states China opposes all forms of unilateral tariffs, emphasizing that trade wars have no winners and protectionism is a dead end. US tariffs on reciprocal measures, fentanyl tariffs, and others violate international trade rules and US law, harming mutual interests. Repeated facts show that China and the US benefit from cooperation and harm from conflict. China urges the US to revoke unilateral tariffs; it also notes that the US is preparing alternative measures like trade investigations to maintain tariffs, which China will monitor closely to defend its interests.

The “Dark Side of the Moon” becomes the fastest domestic unicorn, with nearly 20 days’ revenue surpassing last year’s total! Public data shows that ByteDance took over four years to reach a valuation over $10 billion, Pinduoduo over three years, and Kimi, from an angel round of $300 million to over $100 billion valuation, has multiplied its value more than 30 times in just over two years.

Overseas

US Customs: Will cease collecting tariffs deemed illegal by the Supreme Court starting February 24. CBP announced on the 22nd that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) will no longer be enforced, and goods entering the US or stored for consumption from February 24 will not be subject to these tariffs. The notice also states that suspending these tariffs does not affect other tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

US Democrats will block any attempts to extend tariffs, pushing for mandatory refunds. After the Supreme Court overturned last year’s reciprocal tariffs and other IEEPA tariffs, Trump invoked Section 122 of an alternative legal framework to impose a 15% global tariff. If Congress does not approve an extension, the new tariffs will expire this summer. The 15% rate was set in trade agreements with the EU and others last year; if this rate cannot be maintained, investments made under these agreements could be jeopardized. A group of Democratic senators has introduced legislation requiring refunds of tariffs paid under Trump’s previous tariffs.

Facing Trump’s warning that the EU is stalling, European Parliament suspends approval of US-EU trade agreements. Trump warned that countries trying to “play tricks” with the Supreme Court ruling will face higher tariffs and more severe consequences. Parliament’s International Trade Committee chair Langer said delaying the scheduled vote on the agreement is to clarify the situation and ensure the US respects the deal, which is crucial.

UK may become the biggest victim of Trump’s new tariffs. After the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s global tariff policy, the UK’s preferential 10% rate faces a potential increase to 15%. As one of the few countries previously enjoying lower tariffs, the UK could be most affected, followed by Italy and Singapore. If implemented, UK exports could cost an additional £3 billion, impacting around 40,000 companies.

Federal Reserve Board member Waller: CEOs say AI will cause mass layoffs; March rate decision depends on February labor data. Waller welcomed the strong January employment data but expressed concern about “noise over signal,” noting that even a single month’s data is uncertain, especially since revisions show nearly zero net new jobs in 2025. Whether he supports rate cuts at the next Fed meeting depends on upcoming labor market data.

Trump reportedly considers a “small strike” then a “big strike” on Iran. According to Xinhua, citing insiders, Trump is inclined to carry out an initial strike on Iran in the coming days to signal that Iran must give up its nuclear ambitions. Targets include the IRGC headquarters, nuclear facilities, and ballistic missiles.

• Iran’s Foreign Minister: A “better deal” than the 2015 JCPOA may be possible. Iran’s FM Araghchi told US media that a “better agreement” than the 2015 nuclear deal is feasible, emphasizing Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy. Compared to ten years ago, circumstances have changed, and some terms could be better.

From a “June 2028 research report”: When AI exceeds expectations, the economy collapses. CitriniResearch’s memo invents an “AI prosperity crisis”: in 2028, despite AI productivity surging, a “white-collar job apocalypse” causes an “economic plague.” Corporate profits and computing power expand, but household incomes plummet, choking consumption and creating “ghost GDP.” As SaaS, intermediaries, and financial payment models collapse due to “disappearance of friction,” risks spread from private credit to life insurance and mortgages, dragging the global economy into a systemic re-pricing abyss.

• US stock sectors plunge collectively after a fictional AI report triggers panic. The Citrini scenario of 2028 causing unemployment and economic contraction sparks market sell-offs. Stocks like DoorDash, AmEx, KKR, Blackstone tumble, with payment and software sectors under pressure. Some analysts believe the market may have overreacted to AI risks.

Anthropic claims it can modify Cobol systems, causing IBM to plunge 13%, its largest drop in 25 years; Claude Code Security hits cybersecurity stocks again. Anthropic’s Claude Code tool can accelerate Cobol system modernization, raising concerns about IBM’s mainframe business. IBM’s stock drops 13% Monday, its biggest single-day decline in over 25 years, with a 27% decline in February, possibly its worst monthly performance in decades.

Integrating into next-gen PC ecosystems, Nvidia launches laptop chips, returning to the consumer PC market. The new chips aim to make PCs thinner and longer-lasting, enabling Windows hardware to directly compete with Apple’s latest MacBooks. This strategic move is not focused on short-term profits. Analysts note Nvidia aims to stay connected with consumers in an AI-enabled device era.

Report: ASML reveals EUV light source breakthrough, with chip output potentially increasing by 50% by 2030. Media reports that ASML researchers have found a way to significantly boost their EUV light source power, enabling a 50% increase in chip production by 2030. ASML’s EUV chief engineer Michael Purvis states: “This is not a gimmick or a short-term demo; it’s a system capable of sustained 1000-watt output under real conditions.”

White House event a year later remains largely uninitiated; OpenAI’s $500 billion “Stargate” project stalls. Insiders say the joint venture by OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank has yet to staff or develop data centers. Weeks after announcement, disagreements over leadership, responsibilities, and structure have delayed progress.

Selected Research Reports

Wall Street’s deep dive into “Trump’s IEEPA tariffs overturned”: potential tariff reductions in H2, full stimulus through refunds, industry benefits. Analysts believe, despite rapid implementation of alternative tariffs, effective rates will slightly decline, with policies softening after July. The core variable is the potential $180 billion in refunds, about $120 billion possibly used for middle-class stimulus before midterms. With inflation transmission largely complete, the direct impact on growth and prices is limited, but fiscal expansion could support the economy, and the limited scope of tariffs may weaken the dollar medium-term.

Illegal reciprocal tariffs: can “equal substitutes” be achieved? CITIC Securities expects the US to try various tariff alternatives and maintain trade agreement stability, with Section 122 of the Trade Act possibly key after the 301 investigation. Under rules and congressional constraints, replicating previous reciprocal tariffs fully is challenging. For China, influenced by the “ceasefire” stability and Trump’s China visits, overall US tariffs on China may decline, especially during low-tariff windows, benefiting labor-intensive exports.

$3.8 trillion in assets backlog: Bain reports private equity’s prolonged downturn surpasses 2008. The US PE industry faces a deeper, longer decline than in 2008: returns are at 16-year lows, with $3.8 trillion in assets stranded. High interest rates and tariff uncertainties prolong holding periods; investors demand 20% returns, shifting from broad growth to value creation.

Bank of America: To handle geopolitical risks, “trade oil and hold gold.” Hartnett’s latest report highlights the dilemma: fundamentals are good but crowded, liquidity is waning and flowing overseas. To break the deadlock of “bullish yet stagnant” markets, external shocks like a Middle East oil crash or US-China trade easing are needed.

Global mining giants’ “unified strategy”: copper! BofA states that from BHP, Rio Tinto to Glencore, nearly all major miners are prioritizing copper, with capital expenditures surging back to over 50% of previous peaks. Copper prices could hit $15,000/ton, ending a three-year downtrend and entering a profit-up cycle, presenting historic investment opportunities.

CITIC Securities: code inflation, physical scarcity. They believe AI coding’s leap causes exponential growth in effective code globally, outpacing physical production and income growth under current AI tech. The world will likely experience a phase of code expansion, overcapacity, intensified competition, and declining returns. In the short term, Chinese manufacturing and finance sectors are less affected than US and Hong Kong markets; capital inflows and optimism persist, and spring market rallies may continue, with price hikes a key theme in Q1.

Commercial space: new scenario—space pharmaceuticals. Morgan Stanley notes reusable rockets cut launch costs tenfold, with the pharma industry leading commercialization. Microgravity yields purer, less defective drug crystals; insulin crystals can be 34 times larger. Varda, a pioneer, has completed space crystallization of HIV drugs, raising $328 million, aiming for monthly return flights by 2028. But FDA approval and economic validation are pending; commercialization depends on frequent launches.

Domestic Macro

Spring Festival consumption: “Are the engines running?” GF Securities sees the holiday showing peak foot traffic, diverse travel, service surges, and some regional softness. “Early return to work” and “reunion first, travel later” are trending. Compared to travel, some bulk and optional consumption remains cautious. Appliance and auto sales are steady; policy redemptions need further release.

Post-holiday focus will clarify. Guojin Securities expects investment to shift from AI-driven to broader real sectors; US rate cuts may facilitate global manufacturing recovery. This could reprice China’s capacity value and promote internal consumption and inflation cycles.

Two main themes for “red envelope” market. Industrial Securities highlights AI and resource commodities. AI’s “out-of-the-box” appearance on Spring Festival Gala signals a shift from concept to application, boosting confidence in domestic AI commercialization. Resource prices, supported by macro narratives and domestic price cycles, also offer upside. March-April is a key window for price verification; rising prices could become a core profit and market style driver.

Domestic Companies/Industries

Goldman Sachs on “Spring Festival Robots”: hardware advances drive application spread; core is underlying AI. GS notes the humanoid robot performances at the Gala mark significant hardware progress, but true AI capabilities remain to be tested. They forecast shipments rising from 20,000 in 2026 to 76,000 by 2027, with short-term supply chain stocks benefiting but risks from EV market pressures and raw material costs. Long-term success depends on AI “world model” evolution, crucial for reaching 1.38 million units by 2035.

Overseas Macro

South Korea’s “secret weapon” for leading global markets: the president “used to be a retail investor.” President Lee Jae-myung’s early stock losses and retail experience prompted reforms—board accountability, dividend tax, crackdown on market misconduct—fueling a 36% rise in the Kospi this year, far exceeding the “KOSPI 5000” target. These reforms shifted wealth perception from asset concentration to financial investment.

Overseas Companies

Nvidia’s “stagnation” for months—can the upcoming “most important earnings” move the market? If results fail to soothe jittery markets, volatility could impact AI stocks and broader indices.

After quadrupling, SK Hynix commits to expanding AI chip capacity. As demand from Nvidia and others surges, SK’s chairman Choi Tae-yoon promises large HBM “monster chips” to address supply shortages. With strong demand, SK Hynix’s 2026 capacity is sold out, with profit forecasts soaring to hundreds of billions of dollars.

Eli Lilly upgrades Zepbound to consolidate advantage; a single month’s supply! Novo Nordisk’s new drug CagriSema underperforms in head-to-head trials, dropping 16%.

Industry/Concepts

1. Gold | As of 8 PM on Feb 23, gold prices surged toward $5200/oz, with COMEX futures reaching a high of $5198.8. During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday (Feb 16-23, 8 PM), the international gold market experienced initial volatility followed by a strong rally, with COMEX futures up over 2%, and intra-holiday fluctuations significantly amplified.

Commentary: Analysts believe recent large gold gains have attracted more short-term trading funds, increasing volatility. Despite the sharp rise and pullback, gold’s long-term attributes—financial, monetary, commodity, and safe-haven—remain unchanged. The long-term allocation logic persists, but each big move may amplify fluctuations.

2. Robotics | During the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, a series of impressive robot performances captivated audiences and went viral online. Magic Atom took the opening spot, MagicBotZ1 showcased “Thomas 360” and performed with singers like Chen Xiaochun and Jerry Yan; Songyan Power’s robots performed skits with Cai Ming and Wang Tianfang; Yushu Technology’s robots performed martial arts with Henan Tagou Wushu School; Galaxy General participated in the microfilm “My Most Unforgettable Night” with Shen Teng and Ma Li.

Commentary: Yushu founder Wang Xingxing said the key highlight of the G1 and H2 humanoid robots is their first public debut of fully autonomous swarm control, achieving the world’s first rapid swarm positioning at speeds up to 4 m/s. He expects global humanoid robot shipments to reach tens of thousands this year, with Yushu aiming for 10,000–20,000 units.

3. Fiberglass | According to Jiemian, suppliers and insiders expect a second wave of price hikes due to rising costs and tight supply. Monthly increases of 10–15% are planned, potentially doubling prices by year-end. This follows a cumulative annual increase of over 50% since 2025.

Commentary: Research indicates specialty fiber fabrics are born from the tech era. Under the AI boom, hardware and terminals demand higher chip material standards, boosting Low-DK and Low-CTE fibers—used in PC substrates and chip packaging—leading to supply shortages. As data communication speeds and capacities grow, specialty fiber fabrics will see rising demand and prices.

4. Computing Power | According to Sina Finance, multiple models have driven token call volumes to new highs. Over the past two weeks, growth exceeded 15%, driven by frequent updates including models like ClaudeOpus4.6, Gemini3DeepThink, GPT-5.3. As of Feb 16, MiniMax’s weekly token share on Openrouter reached 22%, over 50% in programming scenarios.

Commentary: Tokens are pure derivatives of electricity. When US users call APIs from Zhipu/DeepSeek, data travels via Pacific submarine cables to Chinese data centers, where GPUs perform inference using Chinese electricity—value is transferred via tokens without leaving the country. With over 70% of token costs from electricity and computing, China’s low electricity prices are shifting global AI pricing power. AWS’s 15% price hike breaks a 20-year “only down” pattern, changing cloud pricing logic, with upstream inflation accelerating demand.

5. 6G | According to Shangguan News, Chinese scientists recently achieved the first cross-network integration of fiber-optic and wireless communication systems, setting new data transmission speed records. They simulated large-scale 6G user access, demonstrating 86 channels of real-time 8K video, with bandwidth over ten times that of 5G. This breakthrough, by Peking University and Pengcheng Laboratory, addresses the “bandwidth gap” and lays groundwork for 6G.

Commentary: AI data center computing power and next-gen wireless 6G demand high-speed, low-latency transmission across diverse scenarios. The new system bridges the bandwidth gap, achieving record data rates, supporting dual-mode fiber and wireless transmission, and significantly enhancing interference resistance. It’s a key step toward 6G applications in base stations and wireless data centers.

6. New Materials | According to Guangming Daily, Tianjin University’s Prof. Sun Yunhua and South China University of Technology’s Prof. Huang Fei, along with others, developed an organic cathode material with excellent electrical conductivity, rapid lithium-ion transport, and high energy density, overcoming traditional inorganic lithium battery issues like low capacity and poor flexibility. They created an organic soft-pack battery with over 250 Wh/kg, surpassing current lithium iron phosphate batteries, capable of working from -70°C to 80°C, with good flexibility and safety.

Commentary: Mainstream lithium battery cathodes rely on scarce, costly inorganic minerals like cobalt and nickel, with resource and flexibility issues. Organic electrodes like quinone compounds, with flexible molecular structures, are promising “green battery stars,” helping China lead in next-generation battery tech.

7. AI Diagnostics | According to The Paper, Shanghai Jiao Tong University’s AI School and Xinhua Hospital’s team developed DeepRare, the world’s first intelligent evidence-based rare disease diagnosis system, offering a Chinese solution to the “diagnosis difficulty and high missed diagnosis rate” of rare diseases.

Commentary: Clinical validation shows DeepRare’s excellent performance, with a pure phenotypic diagnosis accuracy of 57.18%, improving by 23.79 percentage points over the best international models, changing the “difficult to diagnose without genetic testing” dilemma. Its recall rate exceeds that of experienced rare disease specialists. Incorporating gene sequencing data, the top diagnosis accuracy for complex cases exceeds 70.61%, far better than international tools; the generated reasoning reports achieve 95.40% doctor satisfaction, ensuring diagnoses are “well-founded.”

Upcoming Key News

China: February’s 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates.

Germany: Chancellor Mertzs visits China from Feb 24–26.

US: President Trump to deliver State of the Union address.

Speeches by Fed’s Cook, Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed’s Bostic, Boston Fed’s Collins, Richmond Fed’s Barkin.

US: February Consumer Confidence Index.

US: December 20 City Home Price Index.